RE:Outlook for the Birch.....Hey Mr Momo,
Your outlook for Birch is overly pessimistic. First unhedged vs hedged, its always a gamble. Being unhedged last year, enabled BIR to pay down a big chunk of their debt. Having said that, I think they were premature on their dividend increase. Perhaps 0.10 per quarter would have been a better choice, all water under the bridge. In Q2, they only increased debt marginally, less than $ 10 mill, and price of NGLs, Oil and Nat Gas (Esp Nat Gas was not great). In Q3 prices have increased and this upward trajectory continues so far into Q4. So looking forward for Q3 report and 2024, I have no worry about the divident, and I think in the end, running the numbers myself, they should manage to pay off some debt in Q4 and end the fiscal year either at the same debt level or slightly better. In terms of buyout/merger I do not think the company is desperate. However, given the upcoming changing of the guard in 2024, something may be up. Look at the recent retirement of the CEO at Peyto followed by the Repsol deal. Also the trading behaviour has been odd, BIR does not need to cut the dividend, it is trading near its 52 week low, given the price, previous factors, it should be higher than it is. I have a feeling it will show a good increase in share price in the coming weeks. I am holding and I think the company is in a reasonably good position.