Canadian Banc Corp T.BK

RE:A contrarian view

[mouserman]

Obscure1 wrote: I believe the Evergrande filing reinforced fears of another banking tremor.  Maybe not a black swan event but the banking industry in the USA has been testing lower boundaries all year including the recent FED threat to force 6 mid-size banks to re-capitalize.

I don't see a pathway to the FED raising rates on Sept 20th and I highly doubt that the BoC will announce a rate increase on Sept 6th as all the metrics that I follow suggest a "wait and see" strategy. .  

What are we really looking at for the banks in the short run?

I guess we will find out this week.  I don't expect any traumatic increase in loan loss provisions which is what really moves the banks stox.  In fact, I think we will hear a "business as usual" message from the banks with a bias towards holding rates.

I spoke to IR at Quadravest recently about BK.  The don't keep tract of institutional vs retail holdings but the indication was that they believed that a large majority of both the BK and BK.PR.A shares are held by retail investors.  That kinda surprised me as I expected the prefs to be held by funds while the commons would be held by retail. 

My gut tells me that the spike down in the BK share price is more a function of a fear-response from retail investors worried about the 2x leverage than any "exit" from pros.

Mouse:  I don't think that net selling of 40,000 shares by Anonymous is an indication of anything ominous.  I certainly appreciate all that you do here and the chart that you provided today reinforces my belief that BK is widely held by retail investors.  Retail investors almost always react on emotion and often make the wrong decision in moments of uncertainty.  

I was going to buy more at $12.60 but didn't.  I think I will regret that decision by the end of the week.

So retail inverstors dont shortsell? Is that what you are trying to say?
Anonymous is most often used to hide your trading house, which has to borrow shares from somewhere. At times they borrow it in house, and that  is when they really dont want their clients to see the short statistics.
At any rate the LIONS Share of selling since the midmonth report was done anonomously, and it was not small potatoies.
About 1/3 of the shares sold were by Anon.

House Positions for C:BK from 20230815 to 20230821

House	Bought	$Val	Ave	Sold	$Val	Ave	Net	$Net
2 RBC	136,188	1,757,653	12.906	49,655	639,684	12.883	86,533	-1,117,969
7 TD Sec	311,880	4,019,379	12.888	236,160	3,036,923	12.86	75,720	-982,456
80 National Bank	168,003	2,159,696	12.855	110,248	1,423,223	12.909	57,755	-736,473
79 CIBC	170,795	2,193,062	12.84	139,252	1,790,217	12.856	31,543	-402,845
9 BMO Nesbitt	64,268	827,831	12.881	36,920	473,934	12.837	27,348	-353,897
124 Questrade	27,761	358,997	12.932	13,039	168,507	12.923	14,722	-190,490
88 Credential	12,652	163,777	12.945	2,230	28,902	12.961	10,422	-134,875
19 Desjardins	38,570	496,881	12.883	28,195	361,380	12.817	10,375	-135,501
39 Merrill Lynch	50,550	648,483	12.829	42,014	539,045	12.83	8,536	-109,438
13 Instinet	3,700	47,631	12.873	700	9,023	12.89	3,000	-38,608
53 Morgan Stanley	3,591	46,194	12.864	1,785	23,175	12.983	1,806	-23,019
28 CI	1,567	20,262	12.93	0			1,567	-20,262
22 Fidelity	1,500	19,400	12.933	0			1,500	-19,400
76 iA	1,480	18,973	12.82	0			1,480	-18,973
57 Interactive	3,346	42,938	12.833	1,921	24,660	12.837	1,425	-18,278
83 Research Cap	340	4,423	13.009	0			340	-4,423
59 PI	69	898	13.014	0			69	-898
68 Leede	0			1,000	13,020	13.02	-1,000	13,020
5 Citadel	1,584	20,287	12.807	6,342	81,827	12.902	-4,758	61,540
36 Latimer	4,159	53,469	12.856	9,532	122,603	12.862	-5,373	69,134
14 Virtu ITG	20,737	266,888	12.87	31,800	408,187	12.836	-11,063	141,299
33 Canaccord	10,510	132,803	12.636	23,700	300,558	12.682	-13,190	167,755
85 Scotia	35,279	453,545	12.856	63,715	817,883	12.837	-28,436	364,338
1 Anonymous	124,545	1,600,240	12.849	394,866	5,090,982	12.893	-270,321	3,490,742
TOTAL	1,193,074	15,353,710	12.869	1,193,074	15,353,733	12.869	0	23