RE:14,000 BOED in Oct sets the table for huge Q4 & FCF!!!Ali...you are living in a fantasy world....time to come home and face reality.
Number 1...I like how you wont talk about Q3 production numbers but instead want to focus on an * October production number...not a quarter of production but a month.
You are full of sh*t and dont understand BNE if you think BNE went from 10000 to 14000 BOE from the drillbit. BNE didnt gain as much through the drillbit as you think they did.
If you truly knew anything about BNE you would know that BNE was never truly a 10,000 BOE company...they were at 10,000 as when oil prices were low they had shut in wells that have high operating costs.
It is same thing with OBE, I love OBE but I would be b*llsh*tting if I said OBE got no production lift from reactivating shut in wells from Covid downturn.
Both OBE and BNE would have some of this but YGR no. YGR is major all newer low operating cost wells.
And did you stop and look at the production?
Ali...BNE is just getting gassier. Look at how much NG is increasing and look at oil. CF will not be as great as you think because of this. Light oil is still what pumps the cash in. And even heavy oil right now lol.
BNE was 6948 in Q3 for oil production in 2021.
BNE used to be regularly over 8000 on oil side.
And BNE better CF as you have 10M payments the bank wants...look at your financing terms.
What do you think the decline rates will be on the wells....
quote=AliNaimi]
Headline production number of 14,000 BOED in October is a significant milestone.
BNE has not just restored pre-covid production at 14,000 BOED Bonterra has surpassed pre-covid levels significantly. Even with unplanned downtime and a fire at an NGL fractionation plant BNE BEAT street CF expectations by a penny! BNE has reduced debt by $20 million from the highwater mark in Q1/21 and is now below YE2020. Heading into Q4/21 with 14,000+ BOED @ $80-85 wti and $5 AECO will generate significant FCF. I would forecast YE21 debt should be around $285 million after Q4.
The market pushback on BNE by critics suggested BNE could not deliver this production surge to 14,000 BOED with their low cost 1-mile wells, Capex, cost and productivity were constantly doubted(wrongly) and comparison were made to Yangerra or OBE. YGR has spent more on capex then BNE yet has shown a major lack of any growth, certainly not in the same league as BNE going from 10,000 to 14,000 BOED YTD.(remarkable approx.40% growth in 9 months) On top of that there should be about 30+ million YoY debt reduction 2021 exit.(Without forced bank hedging that would be more than double $60+ million) Next year debt reduction will be eye popping as will CF @ $5+ per share at strip! Some falsely believed comparing YGR/OBE Q2/Q3 to BNE Q2/Q3 would surge those stocks or crater BNE's, in fact after each Q the reverse is true.
That being said I don't believe OBE is a good comparison to pure Cardium player BNE, especially now with more PROP ( probably should have been called POOP as nobody wanted it) BNEs peers have always been WCP, CPG, YGE and perhaps TVE.
Haywood had a report out today stating:
We continue to see BNE as a small-cap beta play on improving oil prices
in 2021. While carrying higher-than-average debt on the balance sheet,
improving commodity price expectations in 2021 should place BNE as a
top-quartile stock given the share price has historically been a high-beta
play on a recovery in oil prices. Moreover, we could see sentiment
towards the name improve as debt levels normalize towards 2.7x at
YE21.
Haywood sees a positive sentiment change for BNE heading into YE21, I believe they are correct and the stock price will push much higher over next two months.[/quote]