Bonterra Energy Corp T.BNE

14,000 BOED in Oct sets the table for huge Q4 & FCF!!!

[AliNaimi]

Headline production number of 14,000 BOED in October is a significant milestone.

BNE has not just restored pre-covid production at 14,000 BOED Bonterra has surpassed pre-covid levels significantly. Even with unplanned downtime and a fire at an NGL fractionation plant BNE BEAT street CF expectations by a penny! BNE has reduced debt by $20 million from the highwater mark in Q1/21 and is now below YE2020. Heading into Q4/21 with 14,000+ BOED @ $80-85 wti and $5 AECO will generate significant FCF. I would forecast YE21 debt should be around $285 million after Q4.

 

The market pushback on BNE by critics suggested BNE could not deliver this production surge to 14,000 BOED with their low cost 1-mile wells, Capex, cost and productivity were constantly doubted(wrongly) and comparison were made to Yangerra or OBE. YGR has spent more on capex then BNE yet has shown a major lack of any growth, certainly not in the same league as BNE going from 10,000 to 14,000 BOED YTD.(remarkable approx.40% growth in 9 months) On top of that there should be about 30+ million YoY debt reduction 2021 exit.(Without forced bank hedging that would be more than double $60+ million) Next year debt reduction will be eye popping as will CF @ $5+ per share at strip! Some falsely believed comparing YGR/OBE Q2/Q3 to BNE Q2/Q3 would surge those stocks or crater BNE's, in fact after each Q the reverse is true.

 

That being said I don't believe OBE is a good comparison to pure Cardium player BNE, especially now with more PROP ( probably should have been called POOP as nobody wanted it) BNEs peers have always been WCP, CPG, YGE and perhaps TVE.

 

Haywood had a report out today stating:

We continue to see BNE as a small-cap beta play on improving oil prices

in 2021. While carrying higher-than-average debt on the balance sheet,

improving commodity price expectations in 2021 should place BNE as a

top-quartile stock given the share price has historically been a high-beta

play on a recovery in oil prices.  Moreover,  we  could see sentiment

towards the name improve as debt levels normalize towards 2.7x at

YE21.

 

 Haywood sees a positive sentiment change for BNE heading into YE21, I believe they are correct and the stock price will push much higher over next two months.

[kavern23]

Ali...you are living in a fantasy world....time to come home and face reality. Number 1...I like how you wont talk about Q3 production numbers but instead want to focus on an * October production number...not a quarter of production but a month. You are full of sh*t and dont understand BNE if you think BNE went from 10000 to 14000 BOE from the drillbit. BNE didnt gain as much through the

[GunnerG]

Wow, Number 1.....what happened to Number 2?  LOL I read Ali's post you attached and he never said anything about increasing production through the drill bit, nor from shut in wells.  He didn't address where it came from. And did you stop to think production is gassier because they shut in the wells that produced higher % of oil?  You know when George said he would rather

[kavern23]

Gunner..the new wells are producing more NG then normal... the targets they choose in fist 6 months. I just looked at every single 2021 well they have drilled. They have some wells from first 6 months of 2021 drilling progam doing 600 mcf and BNE usually gets 50-150 mcf.  All the wells since July look back to the normal not that gassy wells. Prob because BNE oil % is getting low. Growing

[oilypants]

Here we go again more uneducated nonsense. BNE wells consisently make their collective curve for years. Do you have any idea what a statistical play is? The cardium is one and all analysts and BNEs presentation confirm this curve.(approx 2/3rds) brokavern no good reading data if you dont understand petrogeology and engineering. BNE has restored production and more(fact) tge market is concern about

[kavern23]

Huh...go to this website and look for yourself you amateur: Petroninja.com has the data. Go look at every BNE well like I did.   But if you didnt know this it is because you dont know what you are doing...  

[kavern23]

Oilypants the problem with people like you is you dont want to work hard...always the lazy approach. Put on your work boots and start working. Dont be so lazy. Go to Petroninja and look.  It takes time. But do it so you dont sound dumb.

[oilypants]

you said you put me on ignore already today but post therafter. That is a special kind of stupid reserved only for you. BNE curve is not an issue to the market or in any analyst report. It more nonsense from an amateur. 14,000 BOED!!! Hahahhwa

[kavern23]

The only people that use analyst reports are amateur retail investors like you...that is why you always eventually get slaughtered. Forward looking is a hard concept lol

[oilypants]

Smart energy institutional investors read them while doing there own inhouse modelling. You dont understand that either. I have my own modelling however sometimes an analyst will be given a nugget by a company quid pro quo. You are an amateur.

[kavern23]

And 30 barrel of oil per day at the 6 month mark works in you model?

[oilypants]

Staying with the capex budget and delivering on production is what matters with a statistical play. Kudos to BNE for achieving both with 14,000 BOED!!!!You are an amateur!

[kavern23]

Have you read their presentation...oilytwat? At 75 WTI..BNE says they would have funds flow of 119M for 2021 on 12800 BOE? BNE had 68M after 9 months of funds flow. You really think BNE remains on target to funds flow 51M in Q4 with hedges...and oil content? and WTI is much higher then 75. They are behind obviously....

[oilypants]

Many companies put price deck forecasts in presentations. They are not guidiance just a snapshot in time. New hedges and differentials amongst other thing can change numbers. Just ask YGR if their page 8 was considered guidiance..it wasnt. I will review BNEs numbers when actuals roll in for 2021 and compare it to their peers and see how realized pricing changed for them and the peer group. 2022

[kavern23]

BNE has such little interest and following that if I didnt post this board would have like 3 posters. Loo at the volume...no interest....

[oilypants]

Yet it still goes up which kind of makes you look even sillier.(no small feat for you) You said OBE stock price would trade higher then BNEs by the end of October. Even sillier! Hahahhwa

[kavern23]

OBE did a share financing...or it likely would have already. Do you undertstand how hard it is to do a share financing in this market? You think BNE didnt try to a share offering instead of a debenture. Debenture just delays when a divy can be paid.  But share financin issue could be paid right against debt. So many months have to pass before this debt mountain to pass and not like BNE

[oilypants]

Nice try you said end of Oct and POOP deal and dilution was after. OBE was never going to $7 at end of Oct to overtake BNE. This just illustrates how off base your analysis is on both stocks.Plus BNE shareholders dont consider OBE to be best comparable or peer for good reason looking at OBEs history and massive ARO. However muse all you want about BNE on the OBE board but over here we will keep

[kavern23]

How come no post here oilpants..or did the 23 cent drop today hit your brain?

[kavern23]

Oilypants...the stock market is keeping you honest: $5.84 -$0.24 (-3.95%) You should be worried about the market keeping you honest....lol

[snowshoedb]

Cavern (a void in one's head): BNE does not control the average oil price in world and local markets. The anticipated cash flow's should be looked at if the market price achieves that level for the year. The timing of increased production and the timing of increases in oil price greatly affect the average for the year for BNE.  BNE Was also forced by the banks to hedge 30% of

[GunnerG]

LOL, you stated Ali said increase in production came from the drill bit.  He didn't, now your deflecting. Are new wells gassier, maybe, lets say yes they are for the fun of it and lay that deflection to rest. You were speculating were the increase in production came from, went from 10,000 - 14,000 BOED.  I said the increase could also be from bringing wells back on stream, actually

[oilypants]

Gunner is right Ali never mentioned drillbit so that just shot your credibility. I looked up your past posts you are an OBE cheerleader. Worse you make silly comments. In one post about 2 months ago you said OBE stock price would be higher in October then BNE! You really have it bad for BNE but your analysis is so wrong. Maybe equally wrong on OBE as you liked their early Nov release. The narket

[kavern23]

Oilypants it is sad that you think stockhouse influences stock prices. You havent posted since May and your alais was created because you think nobody can say the truth. Everyone has to be a uber bull.... Ali said this YGR has spent more on capex then BNE yet has shown a major lack of any growth, certainly not in the same league as BNE going from 10,000 to 14,000 BOED YTD.(remarkable approx.40

[oilypants]

More nonsense from an amateur. When oil goes to zero shutins are prevelent for most OG companies and is perfectly normal. Market(probably not you) understands this and and analyst or oilman worth their salt pencils in organic drillbit bbls growth and seperates the rest. BNE guided as much no secret. Ali didnt say drillbit. They have said they will meet guidaince even with unexpected downtime

[kavern23]

Stop deflecting. Go to petroninja and look up the production of every single well tied on in 2021....make sure you report back with the wells BNE had that didn't even peak at 100 barrels of oil per day :) Make sure you report back on the number of and which wells did. Or do you want me to start posting invidual well data from 2021 program.

[oilypants]

Post whatever you want you still dont get it! Its a statistical play individual wells are not as important as capital effecencies. If you understood that you wouldnt have screwed up being in YGR earlier in the year. If you understood oil you also appreciate the major importance IP365 and capital effecencies associated with it. It makes all the difference!!! (As it takes multitude of things into

[kavern23]

So invividual 2021 well results don't matter to BNE with the debt load and finanical shape it is in? BNE has 2021 wells doing sub 35 barrels of oil right now... Good luck in your investments. Glad you have a crush on me.

[oilypants]

I find you to be a case study in how unknowledgable OG retail investors can be and still invest in the patch. Understanding this tomfoolery can ve important especially with company messaging.

[sclarda]

oilypants wrote Post whatever you want you still dont get it! Its a statistical play individual wells are not as important as capital effecencies. If you understood that you wouldnt have screwed up being in YGR earlier in the year. If you understood oil you also appreciate the major importance IP365 and capital effecencies associated with it. It makes all the difference!!! (As it takes multitude

[kavern23]

And you know nothing Scardla other then you fake fantasy world.... You are burried in BNE stock...don't blame me for your expensive BNE shares Scardla. Scardla, Alex Keaton, Oilypants etc are all same person. Don't be angry you are stuck in BNE shares over 10 bucks. You own fault.   2021 is best return year of my life lol!!!

[kavern23]

6 more months you will see my gone for good as I can rertire. Think about it Scardla...well you waste you time on personal insults....other people like me are moving up in life. Enjoy you fake insults. Some of us have better things to do in life. You must feel so sad when you get schooled.

[kavern23]

Scardla you are not hard to peg...you are over 60 years old, been underwater in the retail darlings like CPG and VET that you have held since 2014 as you dont know how to trade and you are buy and hold. And you are bitter with world as losses piled up. Anyone using margin in 2021 made buckets of cash. 2021 was easy year.  2022 that will be hard. Every company went up almost since start of