How much production will Russia lose?Stole this from another board. A significant portion of Russian oil could be lost FOREVER!
I err'd in my post. I meant the Western fields - ones that export through the black sea and into Europe. The eastern fields will continue to supply oil to China unimpeded. The western fields are already being impacted by shipments being voluntarily refused by the buyers - ones that must be shipped over water.
Russia has minimal storage capacity. Any interruption to demand quickly feeds back, first to pipelines, and eventually to individual wells that shut down. The issue is when the wells are shutin, there is a lot of work required to turn them back on. Go back a couple of years when Russia voluntarily shut in production via the OPEC+ agreement. It took forever to bring many of the wells back - and many have not recovered to this day. Now we are beginning the process anew. Only this time, most of the brainpower needed to bring back production is gone - due to sanctions and major service companies leaving the country.
If all issues were miraculously resolved immediately and production is allowed to come back, how much of the 4 million bbls/d lost would be able to come back? 2 million? 3 million?
The lack of spare capacity worldwide to offset Russia's lowered capacity has assured us of shortages this summer.