ResearchSeeker wrote: After a wonderful earnings report, with expected results exceeded, and some “on the fly” moves revealed, some are intent to convince you, one metric is why you should sell. I say, PLEASE GO AHEAD and SELL if you must, and drive the share price down to $3! Why? Because $30 Million buys back a lot more shares at $3, than it does at $7! I can wait, and so can other longs!
The message board distortion crowd is fighting a losing battle now, because funds are secured, and shares are going to be bought back. If Baytex continues higher, we get more value, and less shares bought back. If the price falls, more shares will be bought back, and we wait longer for the value. This is a great place to be if you are long.
What we know is this:
The world is still consuming more barrels of oil / day than we are producing.
Drilling is still minimal compared to 2011-2014, or other comparable times of high activity.
Additional capex is being implemented, at a time where rig day rates are still reasonable, and the labor force is still the top tier. If the rig counts were to double from here, lack of experience, resulting in costly mistakes, is much more likely. Oil needs to be over $120, to begin a more rapid deployment of new rigs, in my opinion. It has been mentioned often, the new 2022 BOE are not hedged & pay for themselves rapidly!
Baytex is likely to show an increase of 10-15% in BOE YOY production, by year end. Debt reduction is going to accelerate. Banks will attempt to offer more credit when we don’t need it! < this="" is="" me="" grinning="" ear="" to="" ear="">
Money has always been thrown at problems, and there is no reason to believe it will ever stop!
Why the pullbacks after rapid price increase?
We have seen this three times recently. First week of March $6.63, two weeks ago $7.15, and last week just under $7.15. The two prior incidents still closed at an increase for the week, and so did this one. We have had a pullback just about every quarter, because crude oil has had a pullback.
The technical picture on a weekly Baytex chart, is spectacular. The two quarter Keltner Channels show the share price tracking the upper boundary for 5 quarters, and only three times approaching the middle. The upper boundary has been exceeded more often than not. This is why I look at charts. They offer a picture of stock behavior, and with it, confidence. A long term interval chart, for a long term investor.
Shorting for accumulation anyone? Just as longs can accumulate free shares using price movements, so can shorts. If you do this by both going long, and then immediately short, you could be titled a “Double Dumper”. This is why we have stock price manipulations and volatility, because it appeases institutions. All that is is needed to prove motive is to do the math. A 20% short term share price volatility, could produce a minimum of 15% free shares, if execution is well done. Momentum traders do this same thing, with the goal of taking the 15% in profit, rather than shares.
Bash away if you must, though you are wasting your time. Nobody is listening to you, or your aliases. Reading is not compliance, and I read them for humor! My message to the basher crowd, as stated prior, by the late Patrick Swayze: “There is always Barber College”. On the topic of Barber College, the Twitter Censorship Czar might be heading there soon, so you will have company.
On a more serious note, zero hedge offers this outlook for fuel prices, which helps Baytex.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/diesel-market-soaring-and-gasoline-prices-will-catch-summer
Too bad we will have to wait a full quarter each, for the next two earnings reports.
RS
Message Board Distorters Post
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.bte&postid=34326632
Baytex and those who make the markets.
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