Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Where is the Wolf of Wallstreet in your time of need?

[Unlucky13]

Sounds like he had a margin call and got wiped out like Jesse Grimes.  Important lesson of the day, don't fall in love with a stock or industry.  I sold at $9 and have a massive capital gains tax to pay because I was incorporated as a day trader.  I owe the government over $300000 based on a $600000 profit.  I subsequently lost all my gains playing nat gas futures but am about back to even now.  So 8 years of blood, sweat and toil and I have nothing to show for it after 8 years.  

At one point I was down $500000 on BTE,  I made it all back and turned a profit.  Looking to get back in but the most important consideration is the oil price.  At $80 a barrel it's just above the survival line, maybe a $6 stock.  The market tells you what the stock is worth.  Let me repeat.  The market is saying BTE is $6 at $78 to $82 oil.  No more, no less.

The fallacy of Wolf was that he reported to know it all.  Yes, I was very frustrated with BTE and thought I would never see my money back as there are no guarantees.  I lost hope but I still held even though I complained every day.

Wolf's cash flow projections and June 2023 exit looks bleak now.  I really think he was a paid contributor for Eric Nuttal and was paid to pump the stock.

I have always shared with raw emotion and live to tell my tale.  I recently paid back my Father $160000 that I owed him with my BTE profits.

I was down 150K on paper again on HND but now am even.  I keep chasing the next big thing but should be more prudent in my approach.

Looking to get back into BTE but not until it bottoms and I feel the oil price has more room to go down.  Maybe when oil hits the $60 range I will jump back in but I think there is no rush with the recession looming.

Can we all agree Wolf has let you down and you bought his spin hook, line and sinker?

How can he justify the price of the stock anymore?

[HighOctane89]

BayStreetWolf had medical issues and was hospitalized , we haven't heard anything since . I know most of us here are hoping for the best but it doesn't surprise me that a dyck like you would shoot his mouth off regarding something nobody else finds funny . When will you grow up and will you ever stop making an a$$ of yourself ?

[Unlucky13]

I don't wish ill will on anyone but you it falls under the cult of personality like Eric Nuttal.  Don't fall in love with a stock and don't fall I love with an analyst.  When I first bought BTE RBC had a worst case  downside scenario of $10.  The thing went to 30 cents! My issue with Wolf is that if you take him at his word he was a retiree who was hospitalized

[HighOctane89]

Yeah , you told us a few hundred times already but I don't think anyone "cares" about your "story" . I'm not going to waste my time explaining the timeline , you would just say "conspiracy" anyways . So glad to hear you found a new hobby trading nat gas , let us know when you get a little better at it . You're not the only one who sold at $9 , but I

[Hightowntrader]

I don't even know who you're talking with, but let me guess that this is the Coles notes: 1) Google Baytex stock 2) Click 5 year span 3) See the lowest curve and write down the date and price on a post-it note. 4) Now look up and see the highest price cause that is important too. (go ahead- write it down) 5) Ding-ding! Instant Keyboard warrior status obtained! 6) Tell all the total

[HighOctane89]

 Just some Uber driver looking for direction , lol

[Unlucky13]

I just don't get why it's not equal offender status?  Why not throw Wolf under the bus while you are at it.  He was beating the drum to buy and look where we are now.

[HighOctane89]

BayStreetWolf posted researched and verifiable facts , he posted his thoughts on the stock and the market . What he DIDN'T do was drag in his personal details and tales of woe topped with fear , threats of disaster and just being an a$$hole . Nobody liked you or your predictions that were right with the frequency of a solar eclipse . I hope that helps ....

[unluckyl3]

Oh, I didn’t notice.  The whole market was down.  I didn't take that into account.  Please ignore my previous posts. thank you.

[Tradestay]

BTE free cash flow at $75 is 500 million, and you are saying $80 is the survival line? That's a bullshit statement. They increasing production by 5000 barrels approximately and bought back already 3% of their float. Will be exiting 2022 or early 2023 will less than $800 Million Net Debt. $85 oil is $775M free cash flow. If we fall in between lets take that $75 and get $500M, that gives $250M

[HighOctane89]

You can bump up those FCF numbers come Jan 1 when the hedges expire . If we do get another run in Brent/WTI then BTE will get full price for every barrel sold , BSW could have told you how much each dollar would add to FCF but I don't have those figures handy . Point is that within the next 7 months we will have Q3 , year end and Q1 unhedged numbers from an under supplied winter season . Debt

[TheWokeLemming]

Gotta admit .... BSW going MIA is quite suspicious.  Hopefully my conspiracy theory senses are wrong.   For a guy that lived by his keyboard, his absence is questionable.  

[dllscwbysfn]

Maybe he is sick or dead. Maybe he was/is a paid pumper. He was certainly a perma bull who never said a neagative word about BTE. But it should have no effect on whether you own/buy/sell BTE. Bullboards are just that, a place to BS. Nothing more.

[dllscwbysfn]

Or maybe he was just a regular dude doing what he enjoyed in his retirement. Whatever way it is really has no effect on me. Have a nice weekend all.

[HighOctane89]

While I never met BSW in person , I am still surprised at the level of conspiracy theories on his disappearance . I liked having him around because we had much in common including spending too much time posting here , retirement gives you that freedom .  Personally I hope it was a scam and he is laughing on some beach right now but I fear a more serious outcome . Whether you liked him or

[Unlucky13]

Well said but the fact that the first thing he posted was a hit list and black list reeks of desperation and Nazi like approach.  It's his way of the highway, the classic profile of a narcissistic pumper who is being laid to twist facts and get others to pile in.

[HighOctane89]

Normally I wouldn't bother but if someones getting "laid" to twist facts well first , I want to see who the chick is and second , does she come with drinks and dinner ?

[IainCaimbeul]

Don't have a counter arguement then call your opponent a Nazi, vilify them, right out of the liberal party of Canada playbook. I suspect unlucky13 came by it's name legitimately. Luckily I have it blocked so I only get to see it's rubbish when someone responds to it.

[marketsense]

Bullboards need to be used discriminately like any other source of information.  There  is a lot of useful information and a lot of agenda based bias.  I use it more like taking the pulse of how people think and feel. On another note,  I am again incredulous at the Liberals using 2B $ of their education fund to cut the cost of childcare.  I'm not against funding

[Hightowntrader]

I see your point, but...... The government gets my gross income at the end of the year and taxes me on every damn penny they can. A lot of times the haves and have-nots are seperated by many things, including less effort put in. When you draw a line in the sand and set a limit of say $100,000, it will clearly be human nature to do the math, figure it out, and work a little less to reap the social

[Hightowntrader]

Well that first sentence is quite blunt.  Given the length of time now, I'm concerned for his family, and still hoping for the best outcome.  His input was invaluable, and could easily be used for the other players in the same fields. Fingers crossed for him.

[Unlucky13]

568 million shares outstanding, after buybacks that's around 500 million shares.  $500 million in earnings is $1 per share.  At a 5x valuation that's a $5 stock.  If we average $750 maybe you get $7.50 per share in value. The stock is fairly valued with current oil prices and really what I meant is the stock won't go higher at current oil prices.  $800 million in

[HighOctane89]

By your own admission you lost all your profits in 3 months , your record doesn't inspire much confidence . Personally I will wait for Q3 numbers that include unhedged Clearwater production , a weak Cdn dollar and the SPR releases to end before I start worrying about valuation without current information . Once the election is over I expect there will be less effort put toward crushing WTI