Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

UP or Down

[masfortuna]

If we look at energy in general and oil in particular, a good case could be made that oil is undersupplied at the moment. The issue is that it has not manifested iteselfin the sp. On the contrary, we have been in decline for about 7 months. So a better case could be made that either a) the experts are wrong OR b) the pice has been manipulated downwards.  In either situation it does not benefit the shareholder.  I do expect 2023 to be a good year for energy BUT for all the hooplah about oil in 2022, we closed the year at even money. 

As for BTE, this company is still in debt and has another year before the debt reaches a manageable level (500 million???). The problem that has irked investors thus far with BTE is that in Q3 NO DEBT was paid down.  I understand why BUT I also know that their transactions are based in US currency.  So the primry reason that some gave here that the exchange rate ate into any fcf available for debt repayment appears "murky". That in my opinion is one of the main reasons why we took a major plunge in comparison to other mid-cap oil producers.  OBE which I also hold suffered the same fate for similar reasons. 

We could keep posting daily about the sp fluctuations but in the end, you either believe that an additional 2 million bpd is required in 2023 in order to square the market or you don't. The charts  will not show you that. 

*** The only saving grace for BTE at the moment is that it isnot very gassy. Natural gas has dropped from $9 in November to $3.75 as of today IN 3 WEEKS.  This will hit many "gas heavy" companies hard in the next Q unless it recovers somewhat soon. Looking at the weather in Europe and North America, it doesn't appear it will anytime soon.

[Cobalt]

I dont get this undersupplied talk? 2.5 million equivalent new supply in 22 and 1 million more in 23 so 3.5 million more then squares your market now what? and yes the chart shows us that.

[2021Gamble]

Personally @Cobalt I agree with the undersupplied comment - my rationale below. While I agree with your two production increase numbers, they don't account for 220mb going back into the SPR 2021Gamble (651) User Actions   January 06, 2023 - 08:29 AM 90 Reads Post# 35206369 Supply / Demand for 2022 out of balance - 220mb Crude Oil ........................

[Cobalt]

I not just taking just production increase this board is not looking deep enough "2.5 million equivalent new supply" takes into account everything right down to refineries getting more efficient.

[Nothingmatters]

Still a btter trade than gold

[BobbyBoy]

Are you suggesting oil and gas stocks are a bad play for 2023? That is a simple yes or no.

[masfortuna]

  I read somewhere that we need an additional 2 million in 2023 from where we are at the moment.  If I can find the article, I will post it. As for your charts, I am now technical analyst, but charts don't always show the next move.  If you followed your charts only, you would have missed the spike in oil in 2020. And you may miss the tech rally as well...

[HighOctane89]

Thank you mas , this post has some meat on the bone . And I do agree that Q3 was a disappointment (debt wise) and yes , unless WTI gets back up to $85-$95 range the debt will continue to claim much of 2023's FCF .  I still believe this market is tighter than futures would suggest but until some buyers show up , who knows how low they can drive the price . Value has nothing to do with it

[masfortuna]

  Np mate.  BTW I am NO oil expert.  Prior to 2020, most of my investments were in tech and financials.  For obvious reasons I am underweight tech (although starting to nibble back) and I prefer to let others post since many here are more familiar with the energy market.  I include you in this group as well as several others.  We don't need to agree on everything