Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

Good intel on Mack's start-up, thanks

[dosperros]

I suspect there is a conservative undertone to this statement from Neeser, in fact.  When they spoke of ramp-ups for places like El Dorado it was meaningful (they never could run right).  For Mac, it's the one mill that works well.  There should be lots of inventory (the build-up before spring break up).  The crews know what they are doing, and there ought to be zero restrictions on OT and the lot.  The crews need to prove something now that they are the last workforce standing in the town.  They need to outperfrom IMO.

Q2 won't amount to much here other than for news.  We'll see if Shields walks back his bozo comments that are out of the Canfor playbook.  Reading the CFP transcript the BMO analyst, Wilde, went toe to toe with them about the logic (or lack thereof) of refusing to give even a dime back to shareholders.  Canfor is a different animal however, the management knows what they are doing -- building a robust platform for Pattison to privatize.  They don't need or want to bid up the share price via buy-backs or a div.  CFF is not that, however, and Shields needs to come to that realization.  His empire building days are over and the sooner he realizes that the better.

When you look at slide 5, we're at or above pricing from Q2-2018 what generated $17M from Mack.  Futures are shaping up to be at or above Q3-2018 that generated $10M that quarter.  So it's not hard to see earnings for CFF in the next 12 months at ~~ ($17 + (3*10)) = $47M.  That's conservative as they could product an easy 50 MMFBM in Q3 at a $300 CAD margin (FX is more favorable than in 2018).  Call it $15M from the mill, and the usual from the powerplant.

Yet, using conservative numbers of $47M in next 12 months earnings, that alone could ice over 3/4 of the debt for the powerplant and convert directly the market cap (an extra $1/share).  There's a lot more upside than that of course.  Unless Ken finds a way to faceplant and continue to show complete and utter disdain for shareholders.  Time will tell but I'm happy to chip in for a pre-retirement bash and a fishing rod.  Find a hobby that does not involve the atrocious mismanagement and irresponsible stewardship of our assets.  Hey, it's your money too -- time for a set it and forget it dividend.

https://www.conifex.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CFF-Q1-2020-presentation-Final-Draft.pdf

[horseshoefalls]

I'd be a little more conservative on estimates, but it's deifnitely possible what you're saying.  If they could even minize the debt on the power plant from the recent bump in lumber prices, that would make this company infinitely more secure and stable.   I would have almost no reservations at all at that point, as shutting down Mac during bad times wouldn't matter

[dosperros]

Agree on all points.  I tend to be bullish on lumber as it is going to be hard to washout this cycle out barring a severe, catastrophic downturn where housing goes back to ’08 levels, but keep in mind that was an overreaction to an overreaction (starts over 2.0 million in the years prior).  The European wood is heavily affected by the spruce beetle and the fright costs are burdensome