Market cap is 364M this morning. As per Q4 final page we have a net cash position of 23.3M , so Entreprise Value is about 341M.
Looking at 2018 results, a very good year, the EBITDA was 337M. Yes, check again, this is is trading at 1x EBITDA of 2018. Looking at 2017 results, a good year, the EBITDA was 223M. CFX is trading at 1.5X EBITDA of 2017.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/CFX-T/financials/
Given our sector we should trade around 5x to 6x EBITDA multiple, so that's why I see a potential 4-bagger to $20. We can get there from a Price/Sale multiple, from a Price/Earning multiple, from a EV/EBITDA ratio, from historical prices.
It's just hard to see with the messy last years, hiccups; you have to already know, to remember, to be patient.
The pulp markets are very strong and results like 2018 are within reach for CFX starting from Q2.
Like Prem Watsa, I can repeat that this is a ridiculous price, and like him I backed up my talk with a big stock purchase, having increased my position by 50% since the "shocker" Q4 release. I know Q1 will be ugly with the refurb going on but I'd rather be early than miss this!