Canfor Pulp Products Inc T.CFX

CFX financials

[carbide]

Has been at breakeven for years.  $500m share capital, $100m accumulated deficit.  It did pay special dividends in the past, about $150m in 2018 and $100m in 2015.  Otherwise little return.  Amazing how far it's fallen from $27 in 2018.  It's a deep cyclical.  Maybe now is the time for the parent to gobble it up.  As someone said, it's opportunistic, and would likely be the minority's loss in the fullness of time.  Hard to see when the market will turn.  Currently NBSK quite soft with China malaise.  The market remains oversupplied.

[OmahaValue]

Well said. The value destruction since 2018 is shocking.  $1.7B market cap to $130M - hence the opportunity.  Markets are still soft but have improved from the lows this summer (June/July) and we should be into postive EBITDA prices for CFX in Q4 (US$750 - US$800) with both Northwood and Intercon running.

[Catscratch]

Most certainly cyclical and evenutally the pulp price will turn.  Interestingly in 2018 CFX' operating income before amortization was $326M ($150M over CFX's current enterpise value of $176M).  The January 2024 NBSK price on the Shanghai exchange is US$850 vs. US$878 2018 average price delivered to China.  Granted there are discounts and shipping costs so that price