RE:RE:Oil down 2%, Cdn Oil Stock Up 1%My call for oil in the $40's is macro. OPEC & Russia induced.
Yes, I too think US shale is on a declining trajectory but that's not bullish for me in the next 6 months. It's bullish in the years ahead but not much in the months ahead.
If you're talking long term, I am expecting US production to fall from current 12.5M b/d to under 10M in coming years.
As for the trading houses you posted, sorry but I won't even read that. What I'm interested in is observing that once a mgmt team "gets it", the stock price start out-performing. Here are examples I'm going to compile now (not best case examples). Two of companies that finally got the message and 2 that didn't.
CPG and CJ started getting it in early 2019.
ARX and TOG didn't. Still trying to grow production and waste their cash on ~ 10% dividends.
Stock Early 2019 Low Current
CPG $3.25 Feb $4.47
CJ $1.85 Feb $2.26
TOG $3.93 Feb $3.35
ARX $8.39 Feb $5.74