RE:RE:RE:RE:So much for the rally...Preliminary Saudi reports indicate that half of the halted production can come back shortly (or is already back). We will know for sure once they release the first assessment sometime on Monday.
Trump's oil can not get to market instantly. Even if US reserves are released, we will still have days of no production affecting inventory.
I think that for geopolitical reasons, this event will be exagerated and may take more than a week to play out. So my expectations are that tomorrow's oil closing price will be lower than Friday's closing price or next week's price.
Finally, in the long term (6+ months) I don't believe this event will have a bullish effect on the oil price. I still think oil trades in the $40's for an extended period of time in 2020. I think this event is an opportunity for Cdn producers to hedge 2020 production. Especially for producers that haven't hedged before such as Torc. As for Cardinal, since much is already hedged I think they should try to increase their production now given that they can with Kenney recently upping the curtailment limit to 20k. And hedge this increased production. At these prices this expenditure makes economic sense.
ppp wrote: Granted I would say that OPEC with Iran could come up with 1.7 mil a day. so still leaves a shortfall of 4 mil. trump may add 2 mil still looking for another 2mil from somewhere else.
The shorts are going to start getting margin calls in a few days IMO.