RE:Manipulation 101?Whole sector down 20%, coming back up from oversold now, but the MAIN risks to share price are
1. demand picture changing due to Ukraine Asia lockdowns. Europe economic slowing or maybe global
2. negative market outlook and slowing earnings, again economic slowing
If 1 and/or 2 happen and it looks like we're going in that direction, IEA is going to come out and f*ck up the party and oil ftures are going to dive for whatever amount of time.
3. At the same, there is pressure on N am companies to produce more, not only because of massive price spikes with ukraine but also possibly long terme change in political pressure, it has become a question of energy security now, so the capital discpline that was nice and dandy to constrict supply a month ago may well accelerate out the window (good for services companies less for producers) in the US at least.
4. Demand destruction we just got a taste of this week with $2 gas in canada, it has cooled off fortunately but can rapidly impact changes in perception/political will.
These are the risks i see that could drag us back down to a supply/demand balance or worse. all of these are new factors last 4 weeks.
We've been through this before I don't want to lose my gains this time, was very close to trimming a week ago. Global recession is a real fear and even if ukraine is resolved, europe could be already moving hard in that direction while china may slow to deal with outbreaks
So its buy on the dips or trim on strength? I'm not buying more.
Comments welcome.