Cardinal Energy Ltd (Alberta) T.CJ

A bunch of you guys are getting pretty gloomy here lol

[JayBanks]

Has anyone realized the timing effecting this quarterly report? It was pretty much a toss away 2 weeks after the quarter ended while we just received it a few days back, it doesn't really reflect current values well at all... It's a moment the market is getting things wrong...

Start of July the oil price shot up...and we are now sitting about 11-13 over the 71.56 they received per barrel last quarter, taking out the increased expenses in increased royalties (I believe capex is suppose to stay similar to last quarter), maybe we are setting up to average over $7/barrel more on a Netback basis (that's a low napkin number I pulled out)... all other things being relatively equal, that should be around $13.2 million extra in free cashflow, which would be around 1/3 increase from the quarter they have just reported...

I would be looking forward to the next report if the oil price stays 80-85, and it's likely we see Bank Debt drop like $10 mill, and maybe some buy backs (as this miss pricing is a fine time for that)...

I'm pretty excited I picked up more shares in the high 6s last few months, I feel the jump we all want is coming, it's just not going to happen following the oil price every day, it's already well deviated from that... This is where you find opportunity...

[Pottsy]

Thanks Jay, I agree but don't see a breakout soon, CJ has changed, the investors have changed, it is difficult to determine what is going on.   I am now a trader don't care about the divi but at 10 % I would be very cautious,  use  STOP LOSS at every trade...

[JohnnyDoe]

Typically yes a 10% dividend is something to be very cautious about.  In CJ's situation all you need to do is pay attention to wti and the WCS spread. They are currently running ahead of the company budget so there's no cause for concern whatsoever. That said, I think we're going to need to see wti in the 90s for this stock to really get moving.  On the wti downside, CJ can

[Quintessential1]

"That said, I think we're going to need to see wti in the 90s for this stock to really get moving." I am not sure about this.  As long as CJ can fund cap-ex,increase production, pay the divy and pay down some debt I think you will see a slow grind upward.  We will probably still see price swings as commodity pricing is volatile but at these over $80 WTI levels CJ is

[caretired1]

Doesn't it just come down to the fact that Murray Edwards as a major shareholder has made a boat load of money and is quite happy to get the dividend every month at this level  while he waits for a giant takeover offer - he can wait a very long time without any pain whatsoever.

[egee]

Murray, smart, patient, rich

[JohnnyDoe]

But the balance sheet doesn't really need repairing. I'm going off the top of my head but loosely compare CJ, BTE and CPG  CJ - 20K production, 60m debt BTE - 155k production, 2.5B debt  CPG - 165k production, 3 B debt  Both BTE and CPG are trying to pay down debt rapidly and then have plans to increase shareholder returns once they hit their debt targets.  Cj doesn&

[Quintessential1]

Oh I agree and as I stated debt reduction is THEIR goal and balance sheets can always be improved but it doesn't require repairing as it s not broken. As is still stated on their Corporate Summer Presentation reducing debt ia a goal and I can only assume from previous statements that they want to take it to zero which kind of pigeon holes them into doing it.   Continue to reduce

[ReitsRus]

Great to see your input on here Quint! 

[Quintessential1]

Thanks RR.  I generally only comment on boards of stocks that I own.  (occasionally ones I am interested in buying) Despite what chumpydump says a double digit yield is nothing to bark at. GLTY and all

[YupnDump]

looks like you picked up a mutt(dog). we'll forward a CARE package of ALPO for your mangey CJ dog.