RE:RE:WowYeah, 50 million is the correct number after the Capex.
They have stated that their decline rate is close to zero at the Cactus Lake, which accounts for 50% of the production, so Capex should decrease while production increases.
Since they also stated that their current Capex return is between 50% to 100%. Compare that with the decline rate of 10% to 12%.
Anyway, just simple calculation if oil price reached $100: then 17400 x 365 = 6.35 million boe.
If we take 50% of that conservatively, we get 6.35 million boe x $100 x 1/2 = 317 million FCF.
Assuming 50% or $50 per boe covers all the Capex and the operating costs.
Then, they should be able to pay back the debt in a year and have $317 million per year in FCF.
The company's value would reach 2 billion market cap, conservatively. So, when oil price doubles to $100, this stock price goes up more than 5 times. ie. $10 per share.
If oil stayed the same or dropped to $40, the company would still be paying back debt and making money. I don't think oil would go below $40, so not doing an analysis for that.
So, I think it would be good to buy this stock at the current price given the risk reward ratio.
Buying it cheaper than Waterous. PE funds usually buy companies to turn around and sell in 4-5 years on average. Waterous won't manage the company forever, I think this is an appealing long-term investment.