Cipher Pharmaceuticals Inc T.CPH

Rapid Growth of Isotrention Market in Q1/20

[nozzpack]

According to IQVIA, the U.S. isotretinoin prescription market increased by 10% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019.

This is not inconsistent with market studies showing 7.8 % per year.

Absorica returns to Cipher in November of 2022.

It will compete with the new Generic then.

Most likely, Cipher will continue to sell Absorica as a brand name but at a price above the generic.

Studies show that patients prefer  brand name drugs provided that it is not overly expensive relative to the generic.

In Canada, the same drug under the Epuris name, has 41 % of the market.

Epuris sells for about $80 per 30 capsule box in Canada.

I forsee Cipher's Absorica revenues increasing at a substantial level after Nov 2022.

The US drug market is approximately 10 times that of Canada.

Prorata, such a ball park estimation suggests about $25  million US ( $35 m CAD )  per year in Absorica US sales direct to Cipher

[nozzpack]

I should add that Cipher  will continue to receive a royalty until December 2024 based on U.S. net sales from Sun’s  Absorica LD drug.  I cannot forecast that level from Nov 2022 to Dec 2024, but most probably above  $10 million US per year. In Summary, Absorica revenues in the US will continue to be a cash cow for Cipher

[pabaloo]

Exactly! The money will continue to roll in no hurry to do anything. 10 million a year for the foreseeable future. With Trulance and Trevyent possibly 15 million in royalties. Lots of possibilities and the downside is minimal. There is also almost 200 million in NOLS that can be used to offset tax gains. The future is bright no need to worry here just enjoy the ride.

[spike55]

Thats right in a low return world this stock will outperform.....I give it a 20X earnings (excluding Absorica)

[maxxie3]

The money will continue to roll in as the SP goes down ? Very interesting you also forgot to add for every good quarter , the negative surprises or as one of the most hated posters mentioned the "One Time Events" this quarter one-time tax adjustment you have to admit he is right and the next quarter what one-time surprise Is it. As a long-suffering shareholder, I am tired of it I would

[shareswapper]

Maxxie, you seem to have a decent head on your shoulders and are looking at this objectively.  This company seems to be full of surprises and it's never good ones, from the sudden departure of Tessorolo, to Xydalba and Eskata getting pulled with no real explanation, to the CRA audit and of course the Trulance debacle.  I recognize there are things that are often out of Managements

[nozzpack]

Your futile posting here confirms your idiocy. Really, you know, not all people are as dumb as yourself. Got It ?

[pabaloo]

Not sure what you mean by lucky they are buying shares with no new buyers moving in? They haven't bought a single share and they are holding steady after a sell the news quarter.  Like I said before you and spitswapper bought in with a different management and paid 3 times what everyone else has which sucks. Be happy that Mull junior is running the show and he has lots of skin in the game

[maxxie3]

I am referring to stock buyback and for your information I did not pay more 3x more than anyone else.  Why you compare me to another poster is you own insecurities and emotions showing through.  why are you holding on to a profit? The Mulls are not the Messiah ?  They should be held responsible this is a publicly held company and not private and I am a shareholder. they paid off the

[nozzpack]

I was referring to that idiot shareswapper who posts here multiple times per day but owns no shares of Cipher. I do try to provide relevant analyses of what information is available to guide my investment expectations . If you have a problem with those, comment on them in detail and provide your own analyses. That way, your posts would contain something other than useless complaining. Only a

[pabaloo]

Hey Maxxie you're the one who said he was a long suffering share holder? You're the one who said we are lucky shares are being bought by the company or who knows how low it would have sunk? What shares are being bought? None yet! Maybe Monday I'll let you know.  You sound pathetic with your whining so go join the other Bozos on the GDNP board I'll be there in spirit to Pom Pom

[Majictrader]

Buyback allows for a base. The float is tight. Its 8-9 people who have a bull or bear case here compared to other boards with 100s and having bigger float. If they were not confident, no point in doing buybacks unless mull is going to sell 10k share everyday . There will be better days. We need a version of robinhood in canada to run this up like crrayyy ;). Till then we will fight it out here

[pabaloo]

I have owned a dozen companies that had the option to buy back shares and only 1 has ever done it to any degree. Let's hope Cipher actually starts to buy back shares right out of the gate until the feel it's shares are fairly priced. You are correct in that this stock will jump if the company starts to accumulate the few thousand shares every week that are sold at market.