Reason VS Emotion I'll be blunt and to the point..........i sold & pulled out my intial investment here. I'll explain why below.
I REALLY didn't expect the general markets to recoup ALMOST ALL their losses in such a short period. In all reality though, i should be that surprised. With all the liquidity the US Gov't has put into economy and with their CAREFULL mgmt of the market, it was the only path it would go. Even though Crew didn't perform up to expectations considering the numerous obstacles it faced, i though it would at least be on par (performance wise) with some of the better names. It wasn't, not even close. I have my ideas why that's the case, part of it is no one really cares because on scale issues. That's ok though, as i did consider that possibility when i invested.
The problem here now is this. I would have expected the US economy & markets to begin a recovery cycle no earlier than year-end, at best. Along with energy prices included, spefically oil. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case, as US markets have taken back nearly all it's losses and more importantly, crude prices regained theirs also. And herein lies the problem. As crude prices have climbed back into the $40 range, it start to make almost every play viable again, whether in the North America or not. Another few dollars and the Canadian & South American ops are profitable as well. So what does this mean? It means these companies will start back up ops and continue where they left off. Especially those that are very sensitive to production cuts in order to service dent and stay viable.. In turn, the upward pressure in ng prices i EXPECTED due to cuts in oil production MIGHT delayed for sometime or might not even happen altogether. Something that i was betting on when i invested with Crew and a BIG part of my being here.
Therefore, as i bought this at the March lows AND my justification for being here compromised in a signifcant way......it was only logical to AT LEAST sell my initial investment here and not let emotional attachment get in the way of what should be a justified & logical, tactical decision. I would recommend that others do the same, especially if the purchase was made during the market lows. It should not be a decision made with shame or with doubts, imo.
As for the long term prospect, i do not really now what could happen now. As the US elections approach, all eyes will be on Trump and the possibility of his defeat. If the markets have any inkling that this could be a very highly probable outcome, i fear all the market gains up to now will vanish quite quickly. Also, as savvy investors know, the markets are always 6 months ahead, meaning the game is already being played. If a Democrat were to take office, i'm not quite sure what the consquences would be for the O&G industry for the next 5 years. I pretty sure it would not be that good.
Good luck to all