2024 Expectations from Desjardins
https://twitter.com/emmpeethree/status/1749922400282837309/photo/2
https://twitter.com/emmpeethree/status/1749922390522409327/photo/2
Since Dale is not telling us what to expect in 2024, let's look at what others are saying. Above are 2 pages of a research report from Desjardins.
Desjardins expects the following for 2024:
AFF: $200-210M
Capex: $210M
Production of 30,500 boe/d vs 30,150 in 2023
Essentially, 2024 is a wasted year. No growth; all the money spent to maintain production; no dividends; no share buyback. And this is with WTI at $75, and nat gas in the low $2s. What if oil was to go down to the low $60s or the $50s, then they could not even maintain production without increasing the debt. Are we just hoping for nat gas to go above $4 again? It may happen, and it may not. You cannot run a business on hope.
Even if they ever build the Groundbirch plant, all it would do is increase debt by $300-400M, AFF would obviously increase, but they will likely be in a situation to spend all the AFF just to maintain production leveled. This would be a repeat of the years 2018-2019.
If Crew was a person, they would be living pay cheque to pay cheque, no improvement to their standard of living, no ability to buy a car, or go on a vacation.
This is a crapy business. You spend all your profits just to stay where you are.
Mrmomo has said it earlier, it took me a bit longer to realize it, but something has to happen with this firm. They just cannot get ahead. If they do not want to sell it, at least sell a ton of land that they cannot even develop on their own...they just do not have the money.
I have become more and more bearish as many of you can tell.
Comments are always welcome.