Crew Energy Inc T.CR

2024 Expectations from Desjardins

[gonatgasgo]

https://twitter.com/emmpeethree/status/1749922400282837309/photo/2

https://twitter.com/emmpeethree/status/1749922390522409327/photo/2

Since Dale is not telling us what to expect in 2024, let's look at what others are saying.  Above are 2 pages of a research report from Desjardins.

Desjardins expects the following for 2024:

AFF:  $200-210M
Capex: $210M
Production of 30,500 boe/d vs 30,150 in 2023

Essentially, 2024 is a wasted year.  No growth; all the money spent to maintain production; no dividends; no share buyback.  And this is with WTI at $75, and nat gas in the low $2s.  What if oil was to go down to the low $60s or the $50s, then they could not even maintain production without increasing the debt.  Are we just hoping for nat gas to go above $4 again?  It may happen, and it may not.  You cannot run a business on hope.

Even if they ever build the Groundbirch plant, all it would do is increase debt by $300-400M, AFF would obviously increase, but they will likely be in a situation to spend all the AFF just to maintain production leveled.  This would be a repeat of the years 2018-2019.

If Crew was a person, they would be living pay cheque to pay cheque, no improvement to their standard of living, no ability to buy a car, or go on a vacation.

This is a crapy business.  You spend all your profits just to stay where you are.

Mrmomo has said it earlier, it took me a bit longer to realize it, but something has to happen with this firm.   They just cannot get ahead.  If they do not want to sell it, at least sell a ton of land that they cannot even develop on their own...they just do not have the money.

I have become more and more bearish as many of you can tell.

Comments are always welcome.

[PonyBoyOutsider]

Developers buy strategic land, hold and maintain, maybe it has buildings or not, a little rental income (or not) while they wait, they pay the taxes, incur the costs of cutting the grass, maybe some snow removal, then, when the growth of the area has caught up, the developer gets paid. Can take years. This is just a different business, (but, I believe same idea at play here). If they dog paddle

[Oldnagger]

Well , as many here know, I am a real estate developer. I just got informed by the municipality where I develop that A they do not want any more development and B they are quadrupling the taxes on vacant land  This country has become a frozen banana republic !!

[gonatgasgo]

Oldnagger, that's awful.  What part of the country do you live in?  Which province?  I thought you were either in Montreal or the Ottawa area, but I do not know why I think that.

[Oldnagger]

My development is in The worst province , I will not say more. I rather do not enjoy being negative on anything , so perhaps things will change for the better , I will see things thru no mattter how long it takes. That is the way I am . I would have very much liked to have done as much development as I could. I believe that way that I am helping everyone. Apparently the powers that be think

[gonatgasgo]

Thanks PonyBoy. Based on the 2 Desjardins charts that I shared on my earlier post, one can see the following: ARX is keeping the same production as in 2023, but they have enough for dividends and buyback TOU and PEY are increasing production and they have enough for dividends AAV is increasing production and they have enough for buybacks CR just enough to keep production the same, while CR

[robert41]

Easy to be discouraged Gonat.....Rafi just bought 15 million shares for a reason I suspect he's a lot more informed than desjardins. The big question is what does he see and others don't? As for momo his predictions are as horrible as use of the English language.