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Concordia Healthcare Corp. T.CXR.R



TSX:CXR.R - Post by User

Comment by sunshine7on Jun 08, 2016 12:51am
207 Views
Post# 24944831

RE:RE:My Take

RE:RE:My TakeFrom the last earnings report: "Reaffirms 2016 guidance2 of $1,020 million to $1,060 million in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $610 million to $640 million". The 2 largest expenses are debt (7.25%) and taxes (10%). Of course the interest % will drop under PE and earnings will grow with sales at 10%/yr. Your conservative $300M is after interest is paid which reduces with time and more principle is paid (like a mortgage). Being a CA and all, I am certain you have a calculator that can do a better job than your 'simple' calculation. I am willing to bet that at 4% and 10% growth, the loan is fully paid in 12 years or less. But debt-free of course is not the goal. Manageable debt that has higher returns re-invested is always preferable. Should P/E multiples return to historic averages in coming couple of years, it can be placed back on the market for a handsome profit. Oh, and stop calling me a moron!
bull_man wrote: let's do a very simple calculation, excluding PV calcs and any synergies; so if we accept CDN$55 (US$43)....and that's if an offer is even made, they would pay US$2.2 billion for CXR, plus inherit US$3.3 billion of debt; total cost, US$5.5 billion to the purchaser; CXR is currently generating about US$300 million free cash flow per annum, therefore an "18-year payback", not taking into account interest on debt, which is pretty high, and assuming no further growth and no negative impact from brexit and the november U.S. election results i.e. future pricing regulations; so ask yourself the question, if you were apollo, would you buy CXR???  so if they offer CDN$55, let's take it and run, and run fast.....very fast.


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