Dividend 15 Split Corp T.DFN

Morning headfake?

[flamingogold]

Won't be surprised if this morning's pop sells off this afternoon. It's a battle between those looking for rate chops and a strong economy stateside.

[ABP123]

For about a minuit at around 2 PM, it looked like we might be heading in that direction.  I too thought we might be going for the headfake.  I don't know what to make of this market.  I have some cash to buy, but I don't know what to buy.  I have only done a little selling, really just cleaning up some end trails in my portfolio. I guess next week's hurdle is

[flamingogold]

Yesterday's action confirms that a risk of recession is far worse than higher inflation. The strong US jobs data indicates a strong economy so the liklihood for the FED to cut now in June is diminishing by the day. There are 5 more FED meetings left... June 12 (unlikely) July 31 (possible) Sept 18 (unlikely due to election) Nov 7 (possible) Dec 18 (possible) The wish to cut 3x is

[ABP123]

Part of me thinks the FED won't cut at all this year.  Inflation in the US won't come down meaningfully until after the election into 2025. By US standards Biden is spending like a drunken sailor.  This will continue until election day.  If Biden wins the spending stops because he doesn't need to do it anymore.  Trump wins the spending stops.

[NoShoesNoShirt]

Trump may campaign as a thrifty type, but he cuts taxes even more.  During his 4 years, the US debt rose 8 trillion.  Cutting taxes on borrowed money is stupid. 

[Beuler]

US is on a different trajectory, early cuts less likely down south, Canada cuts more likely, rising unemployment is the kicker. 

[mouserman]

Not so sure about that. I think interest rates will likely stay elevated, even if we see a cut this summer. The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on Monday warned that central banks may cut interest rates less than what many people expect. The Globe's Mark Rendell writes that according to Mr. Carney, the monetary policy will be

[Beuler]

Banks declaring a productivity energy, coupled with the rising unemployment rate. The fire is growing, a depression maybe the end result if they delay much longer. June was my original outlook, but the above mentioned events clicked me more to the early cut side. I can wait, spring real estate market should be interesting, people trying to qualify for million dollar mortgages at stress tested 8%.&

[flamingogold]

Depression is not happening. Might be for individuals who loaded up too much on debt at under 2% and now face higher for longer rates. But, economy-wide there will be no depression.