Denison Mines Corp T.DML

Plans For New Reactors Worldwide

[Gus12]

Content741_top.png"); background-repeat: no-repeat; width: 741px; top: 2px; left: 0px;" class="printContent" id="contentHeadDiv">

Plans For New Reactors Worldwide

(Updated August 2010)

• Nuclear power capacity worldwide is increasing steadily but not dramatically, with almost 60 reactors under construction in 15 countries.
• Most reactors on order or planned are in the Asian region, though there are major plans for new units in Europe, the USA and Russia.
• Significant further capacity is being created by plant upgrading.
• Plant life extension programs are maintaining capacity, in USA particularly.

Today there are some 440 nuclear power reactors operating in 30countries plus Taiwan, with a combined capacity of over 376 GWe. In 2009these provided 2560 billion kWh, about 15% of the world's electricity.

About 58 power reactors are currently being constructed in 14countries plus Taiwan (see Table below), notably China, South Korea andRussia.

The International Atomic Energy Agency in its 2009 reportsignificantly increased its projection of world nuclear generatingcapacity. It now anticipates at least 73 GWe in net new capacity by2020, and then 511 to 807 GWe in place in 2030 - very much more thanprojected previously, and 37% to 116% more than the 327.5 GWe actuallyoperating in 2009. OECD estimates range up to 680 GWe in 2030. Thechange is based on specific plans and actions in a number of countries,including China, India, Russia, Finland and France, coupled with thechanged outlook due to the Kyoto Protocol. The IAEA projections wouldgive nuclear power a 13.5 to 14.6% share in electricity production in2020, and 12.6 to 15.9 % in 2030. The fastest growth is in Asia.

It is noteworthy that in the 1980s, 218 power reactors started up, anaverage of one every 17 days. These included 47 in USA, 42 in Franceand 18 in Japan. These were fairly large - average power was 923.5 MWe.So it is not hard to imagine a similar number being commissioned in adecade after about 2015. But with China and India getting up to speedwith nuclear energy and a world energy demand double the 1980 level in2015, a realistic estimate of what is possible (but not planned at thisstage) might be the equivalent of one 1000 MWe unit worldwide every 5days.

See also Nuclear Renaissance paper for the factors driving the increase in nuclear power capacity, and also WNA's Nuclear Century Outlook.

Increased Capacity

Increased nuclear capacity in some countries is resulting from theuprating of existing plants. This is a highly cost-effective way ofbringing on new capacity.

Numerous power reactors in USA, Belgium, Sweden and Germany, for example, have had their generating capacity increased. In Switzerland, the capacity of its five reactors has been increased by 12.3%. In the USA,the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved 126 uprates totallingsome 5600 MWe since 1977, a few of them "extended uprates" of up to 20%.

Spainhas had a program to add 810 MWe (11%) to its nuclear capacity throughupgrading its nine reactors by up to 13%. Some 519 MWe of the increaseis already in place. For instance, the Almarez nuclear plant is beingboosted by more than 5% at a cost of US$ 50 million.

FinlandFinlandboosted the capacity of the original Olkiluoto plant by 29% to 1700MWe. This plant started with two 660 MWe Swedish BWRs commissioned in1978 and 1980. It is now licensed to operate to 2018. The Loviisa plant,with two VVER-440 (PWR) reactors, has been uprated by 90 MWe (10%).

Swedenisuprating Forsmark plant by 13% (410 MWe) over 2008-10 at a cost of EUR225 million, and Oskarshamn-3 by 21% to 1450 MWe at a cost of EUR 180million.

Nuclear Plant Construction

Most reactors currently planned are in the Asian region, with fast-growing economies and rapidly-rising electricity demand.

Many countries with existing nuclear power programs (Argentina,Armenia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Rep., France,India, Japan, Pakistan, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, South Korea, SouthAfrica, Ukraine, UK, USA) have plans to build new power reactors (beyondthose now under construction).

In all, over 150 power reactors with a total net capacity of almost170,000 MWe are planned and over 340 more are proposed. Rising gasprices and greenhouse constraints on coal, coupled with energy securityconcerns, have combined to put nuclear power back on the agenda forprojected new capacity in both Europe and North America.

In the USAthere are proposals for over twenty new reactors and the first 17combined construction and operating licences for these have been appliedfor. All are for late third-generation plants, and a further proposalis for two ABWR units. it is expected that 4 to 8 new reactors will beon line by 2020.

In Canadathereare plans to build up to 3500 MWe of new capacity in Ontario, andproposals for similar capacity in Alberta and one large reactor in NewBrunswick.

In Finland,construction is now under way on a fifth, very large reactor which willcome on line in 2012, and plans are firming for another large one tofollow it.

France is building a similar 1600 MWe unit at Flamanville, for operation from 2012, and a second is to follow it at Penly.

In the UK, four similar 1600 MWe units are planned for operation by 2019, and a further 6000 MWe is proposed.

Romania's second power reactor istarted up in 2007, and plans are being implemented for two further Canadian units to operate by 2017.

Slovakiais completing two 470 MWe units at Mochovce, to operate from 2011-12.

Bulgaria is planning to start building two 1000 MWe Russian reactors at Belene.

In Russia,ten large reactors are under active construction, one being a largefast neutron reactor. Seven further reactors are then planned to replacesome existing plants, and by 2016 ten new reactors totalling at least9.8 GWe should be operating. Further reactors are planned to add newcapacity by 2020. This will increase the country's present 21.7 GWenuclear power capacity to 43 GWe about 2020. In addition about 5 GW ofnuclear thermal capacity is planned. A small floating power plant isexpected to be completed by 2012 and others are planned to follow.

Poland is planning some nuclear power capacity, and may also join a project in Lithuania, with Estonia and Latvia.

Italyis planning to build substantial nuclear capacity and have 25% of itselectricity from nuclear power by 2030, which will require 8 to 10 largenew reactors by then.

South Koreaplans to bring a further eight reactors into operation by 2016, givingtotal new capacity of 9200 MWe. Of the first six, now underconstruction, four are improved OPR-1000 designs. Then come Shin-Kori-3& 4 and Shin-Ulchin 1&2, the first of the Advanced PWRs of 1400MWe, to be in operation by 2016. These APR-1400 designs have evolvedfrom a US design which has US NRC design certification, and have beenknown as the Korean Next-Generation Reactor. Four further APR-1400units are planned, and the design has been sold to the UAE (see below).

Japanhas two reactors under construction and another three likely to startbuilding by mid 2011. It also has plans and, in most cases, designatedsites and announced timetables for a further nine power reactors,totalling over 13,000 MWe which are expected to come on line by 2022.

In China,now with 13 operating reactors on the mainland, the country is wellinto the next phase of its nuclear power program. Some 23 reactors areunder construction and ten more are likely to be so by the end of 2010.Those under construction include the world's first Westinghouse AP1000units and a demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plant.Many more units are planned, with construction due to start within threeyears. But most capacity under construction will be the largelyindigenous CPR-1000. China aims at least to quadruple its nuclearcapacity from that operating and under construction by 2020.

On Taiwan, Taipower is building two advanced reactors (ABWR) at Lungmen.

Indiahas 19 reactors in operation, and four under construction (two expectedto be completed by 2010). This includes two large Russian reactors and alarge prototype fast breeder reactor as part of its strategy to developa fuel cycle which can utilise thorium. Twenty further units areplanned. Ten further units are planned, and proposals for more -including western and Russian designs - are taking shape following thelifting of trade restrictions.

Pakistanhas a second 300 MWe reactor under construction at Chasma, financed byChina. There are plans for two more Chinese power reactors.

In Kazakhstan,a joint venture with Russia's Atomstroyexport envisages development andmarketing of innovative small and medium-sized reactors, starting with a300 MWe Russian design as baseline for Kazakh units.

In Irannuclear power plant construction was suspended in 1979 but in 1995 Iransigned an agreement with Russia to complete a 1000 MWe PWR at Bushehr.Fuel is being loaded for late 2010 start-up.

The United Arab Emirates has awarded a $20.4 billion contract to a South Korean consortium to build four 1400 MWe reactors by 2020.

Jordan has committed plans for its first reactor to be operating by 2020, and is developing its legal and regulatory infrastructure.

Turkey has contracts signed for Russian nuclearplants at one site and is planning Soputh Korean units at another. Itslegal and regulatory infrastructure is well-developed.

Vietnam has committed plans for its first reactorsat two sites (2x2000 MWe), to be operating by 2020, and is developingits legal and regulatory infrastructure. The first plant will be aturnkey project built by Atomstroyexport.

Indonesia plans to construct 6000 MWe of nuclear power capacity by 2025.

Thailand plans to start constructing an initial nuclear power station in 2014.

Fuller details of all the above contries curently without nuclear power are in country papers or the paper on Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries.

Plant Life Extension and Retirements

Most nuclear power plants originally had a nominal design lifetime of25 to 40 years, but engineering assessments of many plants haveestablished that many can operate longer. In the USAsome 60 reactors have been granted licence renewals which extend theiroperating lives from the original 40 out to 60 years, and operators ofmost others are expected to apply for similar extensions. Such licenceextensions at about the 30-year mark justify significant capitalexpenditure for replacement of worn equipment and outdated controlsystems.

In France, there are rolling ten-year reviews of reactors. In 2009the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) approved EdF's safety case for40-year operation of the 900 MWe units, based on generic assessment ofthe 34 reactors. In Japan, plant lifetimes up to 70 years re envisaged.

When some of the first commercial nuclear power stations in theworld, Calder Hall and Chapelcross in the UK, were built in the 1950sthey were very conservatively engineered, though it was assumed thatthey would have a useful lifetime of only 20-25 years. They were thenauthorised to operate for 50 years, but due to economic factors closedearlier. Most other Magnox plants are licensed for 40-year lifetimes.

The Russian government is extending the operating lives of many ofthe country's reactors from their original 30 years, for 15 years.However, 25-year licence extensions are likely for the newer VVER-1000units, with significant upgrades.

The technical and economic feasibility of replacing major reactorcomponents, such as steam generators in PWRs and pressure tubes in CANDUheavy water reactors, has been demonstrated. The possibilities ofcomponent replacement and licence renewals extending the lifetimes ofexisting plants are very attractive to utilities, especially in view ofthe public acceptance difficulties involved in constructing replacementnuclear capacity.

On the other hand, economic, regulatory and political considerationshave led to the premature closure of some power reactors, particularlyin the United States, where reactor numbers have fell from 110 to 104,and in eastern Europe.

It should not be assumed that reactors will close when their licenceis due to expire, since licence renewal is now common. However, newplants coming on line are balanced by old plants being retired. Over1996-2009, 43 reactors were retired as 49 started operation. There areno firm projections for retirements over the next two decades, but WNAestimates that at least 60 of those now operating will close by 2030,most being small plants. The 2009 WNA Market Report reference case has143 reactors closing by 2030, using very conservative assumptions aboutlicence renewal.

The World Nuclear Power Reactor table gives a fuller and (for current year) possibly more up to date overview of world reactor status.

Power reactors under construction, or almost so

Start Operation*		REACTOR	TYPE	MWe (net)
2010	India, NPCIL	Kaiga 4	PHWR	202
2010	Iran, AEOI	Bushehr 1	PWR	950
2010	India, NPCIL	Kudankulam 1	PWR	950
2010	Korea, KHNP	Shin Kori 1	PWR	1000
2011	Argentina, CNEA	Atucha 2	PHWR	692
2011	India, NPCIL	Kudankulam 2	PWR	950
2011	Russia, Energoatom	Kalinin 4	PWR	950
2011	Korea, KHNP	Shin Kori 2	PWR	1000
2011	China, CGNPC	Lingao II-2	PWR	1080
2011	Japan, Chugoku	Shimane 3	ABWR	1375
2011	Taiwan Power	Lungmen 1	ABWR	1300
2011	Canada, Bruce Pwr	Bruce A1	PHWR	769
2011	Canada, Bruce Pwr	Bruce A2	PHWR	769
2011	Pakistan, PAEC	Chashma 2	PWR	300
2011	India, NPCIL	Kalpakkam	FBR	470
2012	Finland, TVO	Olkilouto 3	PWR	1600
2012	China, CNNC	Qinshan phase II-4	PWR	650
2012	Taiwan Power	Lungmen 2	ABWR	1300
2012	Korea, KHNP	Shin Wolsong 1	PWR	1000
2012	Canada, NB Power	Point Lepreau 1	PHWR	635
2012	France, EdF	Flamanville 3	PWR	1630
2012	Russia, Energoatom	Vilyuchinsk	PWR x 2	70
2012	Russia, Energoatom	Novovoronezh II-1	PWR	1070
2012	Slovakia, SE	Mochovce 3	PWR	440
2012	China, CGNPC	Hongyanhe 1	PWR	1080
2012	China, CGNPC	Ningde 1	PWR	1080
2013	Korea, KHNP	Shin Wolsong 2	PWR	1000
2013	USA, TVA	Watts Bar 2	PWR	1180
2013	Russia, Energoatom	Leningrad II-1	PWR	1070
2013	Korea, KHNP	Shin-Kori 3	PWR	1350
2013	China, CNNC	Sanmen 1	PWR	1250
2013	China, CGNPC	Ningde 2	PWR	1080
2013	China, CGNPC	Yangjiang 1	PWR	1080
2013	China, CGNPC	Taishan 1	PWR	1700
2013	China, CNNC	Fangjiashan 1	PWR	1080
2013	China, CNNC	Fuqing 1	PWR	1080
2013	China, CGNPC	Hongyanhe 2	PWR	1080
2013	Slovakia, SE	Mochovce 4	PWR	440
2014	China, CNNC	Sanmen 2	PWR	1250
2014	China, CPI	Haiyang 1	PWR	1250
2014	China, CGNPC	Ningde 3	PWR	1080
2014	China, CGNPC	Hongyanhe 3	PWR	1080
2014	China, CGNPC	Hongyanhe 4	PWR	1080
2015	China, CGNPC	Yangjiang 2	PWR	1080
2014	China, CNNC	Fangjiashan 2	PWR	1080
2014	China, CNNC	Fuqing 2	PWR	1080
2014	China, CNNC	Changiang 1	PWR	650
2014	China, China Huaneng	Shidaowan	HTR	200
2014	Korea, KHNP	Shin-Kori 4	PWR	1350
2014	Japan, Tepco	Fukishima I-7	ABWR	1380
2014	Japan, EPDC/J Power	Ohma	ABWR	1350
2014	Russia, Energoatom	Rostov 3	PWR	1070
2014	Russia, Energoatom	Beloyarsk 4	FNR	750
2015	Japan, Tepco	Fukishima I-8	ABWR	1380
2015	China, CGNPC	Yangjiang 3	PWR	1080
2015	China, CPI	Haiyang 2	PWR	1250
2015	China, CGNPC	Taishan 2	PWR	1700
2015	China, CGNPC	Ningde 4	PWR	1080
2015	China, CGNPC	Hongyanhe 5	PWR	1080
2015	China, CGNPC	Fangchenggang 1	PWR	1080
2015	China, CNNC	Changiang 2	PWR	650
2015	China, CNNC	Hongshiding 1	PWR	1080
2015	China, CNNC	Taohuajiang 1	PWR	1250
2015	China, CNNC	Fuqing 3	PWR	1080
2015	Korea, KHNP	Shin-Ulchin 1	PWR	1350
2015	Japan, Tepco	Higashidori 1	ABWR	1385
2015	Japan, Chugoku	Kaminoseki 1	ABWR	1373
2015	India, NPCIL	Kakrapar 3	PHWR	640
2015	Bulgaria, NEK	Belene 1	PWR	1000
2016	Korea, KHNP	Shin-Ulchin 2	PWR	1350
2016	Romania, SNN	Cernavoda 3	PHWR	655
2016	Russia, Energoatom	Novovoronezh II-2	PWR	1070
2016	Russia, Energoatom	Leningrad II-2	PWR	1200
2016	Russia, Energoatom	Rostov 4	PWR	1200
2016	Russia, Energoatom	Baltic 1	PWR	1200
2016	Russia, Energoatom	Seversk 1	PWR	1200
2016	Ukraine, Energoatom	Khmelnitsky 3	PWR	1000
2016	India, NPCIL	Kakrapar 4	PHWR	640
2016	India, NPCIL	Rajasthan 7	PHWR	640
2016	China,	several
2017	Russia, Energoatom	Leningrad II-3	PWR	1200
2017	Ukraine, Energoatom	Khmelnitsky 4	PWR	1000
2017	India, NPCIL	Rajasthan 8	PHWR	640
2017	Romania, SNN	Cernavoda 4	PHWR	655
2017	China,	several

* Latest announced year of proposed commercial operation. Rostov = Volgodonsk