CIBC Raise TargetEQUITY RESEARCH
March 9, 2023 Earnings Update
ECN CAPITAL CORP.
Raising Price Target On Review Of Strategic Alternatives
Our Conclusion
We are resuming coverage of ECN Capital following a brief period of
research restriction related to the announcement of a strategic review. We
suspect that the sharp underperformance of ECN’s share price played a role
in attracting third-party “interest” and that the company could evaluate a wide
range of options to enhance shareholder value. Although we are not
speculating on the outcome, in our view it seems more likely than not that a
transaction (of some form) materializes. We expect the review process will
take time to play out, but believe that ECN will carefully weigh all options and
only act on an offer that is materially value-creating.
Key Points
A “review of strategic alternatives” could mean several things. In
response to inbound interest, ECN has initiated a formal review of options to
maximize shareholder value. A “review of strategic alternatives” is often
interpreted by public market investors as an open solicitation of buyout
offers. In this case, however, we suspect there could be a multitude of
possibilities explored by ECN. In our view, the range of potential outcomes
could include, but is not limited to: 1) an outright sale of the business; 2) the
sale of a single operating subsidiary; 3) a counterparty making an equity
investment and committing to become a large, multi-year, cornerstone
funding partner, and, of course; 4) doing nothing at all.
Inbound interest likely prompted by recent underperformance. After
announcing the sale of Kessler Group in August 2022, ECN shares
subsequently underperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 55%.
Based on the unaffected share price, ECN traded at 8.6x P/E (2023
consensus EPS) versus 15.7x just prior to the divestiture announcement. In
this context, we are inclined to believe that the sharp decline in market value
attracted interest from third parties.
More likely that something materializes than not. In order to announce a
formal strategic review, we suspect that the offer (or “interest”) must have
been credible and sufficiently attractive to merit serious consideration. ECN
may require a longer period of time to assess all options, but it seems more
likely than not that a transaction (of some form) materializes. ECN did not
indicate a timeline, but we suspect this review could play out over the course
of a few quarters (if not longer).
We expect ECN would only act on something that is materially value-
enhancing. We doubt that the company would consider doing anything that
didn’t crystallize meaningful value to shareholders. Management believes
that the intrinsic value of ECN is much greater than its current market value
and would only be tempted to transact in a way that unlocked significant
value. Consequently, we are raising our price target from $4.50 to $5.00,
reflecting a higher target multiple.