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ECN Capital Corp T.ECN

Alternate Symbol(s):  ECNNF | T.ECN.DB | T.ECN.DB.A | T.ECN.DB.B | T.ECN.P.C | ECNCF

ECN Capital Corp. is a Canada-based provider of business services to North American banks, credit unions, life insurance companies, pension funds and institutional investors (collectively, its Partners). The Company originates, manages and advises on credit assets on behalf of its Partners, specifically consumer (manufactured housing and recreational vehicle and marine) loans and commercial (inventory finance or floorplan) loans. The Company operates through two segments: Manufactured Housing Finance, and Recreational Vehicles and Marine Finance. It operates through three businesses: Triad Financial Services, which manufactures home loans; Source One Financial, which is engaged in nationwide marine and RV lending; and Intercoastal Finance Group, which is engaged in national marine and RV lending. It provides prime credit portfolio solutions: Secured consumer loan portfolios, which manufactures home loans, and Secured consumer loan portfolios, which provides marine and RV loans.


TSX:ECN - Post by User

Comment by Blueswinon Nov 10, 2023 9:23pm
128 Views
Post# 35729774

RE:RE:Voss Capital Q3 update

RE:RE:Voss Capital Q3 update

ECN Capital (OTCPK:ECNCF) Update

ECN has been disappointing and frustrating lately, so we felt it warranted an update. The company recently announced a major strategic investment from Skyline Champion (SKY), the second largest manufactured housing player in North America, whereby the two companies have created a captive finance joint venture in addition to Skyline purchasing a 20% effective ownership stake in ECN. After several quarters in a row of lowering earnings guidance combined with confusion around the deal structure and dynamics going forward and, from what we can gather, aggressive price-insensitive tax-loss selling by Canadian mutual funds, the stock has become extremely out of favor and is 40% lower than the price of the Skyline deal. Although the fledging JV has limited visibility at the moment, we think the partnership has the potential to significantly drive earnings growth as Skyline pairs an inhouse financing option with the homes they manufacture and sell. The market is clearly less optimistic. At the same time, Texas manufactured housing retail unit sales have quietly flipped back to positive year-over-year growth in August (+6%), a promising sign for continued Triad loan origination growth, but there is still fear over rates and undoubtedly weak end markets across RV and Marine. If we back out ECN's purchase price of Source 1 & IFG, their RV and Marine origination platforms, and our estimate of their earnings contribution, we believe the core business of Triad is being valued at ~3.5x forward earnings - an extremely distressed level valuation for a business that has been a steady compounder and market share taker, is asset-light, and achieves >50% EBITDA margins. We can still envision a clear event path from here, where they sell the RV and Marine business once the end markets at least stabilize, rebrand the company to Triad and relist to the US from Canada, and then eventually sell out entirely to Skyline or a major funding partner for a price well above the previous deal price ($3.04/share) within the next 2-3 years.

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