mercedesman wrote: BayStreetWild wrote: are you high on drugs or something?
at 33 cents I'd say the chances of the over allotment being used is 0-0.0001%.
the stock needs to go up almost 100% from here for the warrants to be exercised. Good luck with that happening in the near term.
baxter $6M. Where is this imaginary number coming from.
the only thing we are sure of is the burn rate.... which is set to increase. We are also told that 6 people have been enrolled in the last 2 1/2 months at what the company considers enhanced (extremely good). You can do the math yourself on how much cash is needed until the end. We can feel relatively safe that they don't need a financing until next spring (after that the clock starts ticking again) but even that is subject to change.
mercedesman wrote: Is the possible amount of cash on hand plus what may be coming in over the coming Qtrs.
$ 13M COH (after the recent $ 10M raise)
Other possible sources:
- $ 1.5M on over-alotment potential (that'll be interesting to watch)
- $ 6M on exercise of about $ 12M new warrants (at .50) assuming SP goes back up over $ .50
- $ 6M+ from Baxter (2nd tranche, on Interim Data review). Redacted but educated guess.
Assumes no new cash on Sales $ coming form SAMI, EAA, etc. (Aren't we hiring?)
Also assumes nothing from Baxter on the final Tranche. (another $ 6M CAD $)
Total of above $ 26.5M
In the First 1/2 of 2021 they burned through $ 4.2M in cash (from Operations, excluding the effect of the .45 warrant financing of $ 3.2).
Lets say that increases to $5M/Half year (or $ 10M/year)
The math suggests, that if the extra $ come in (as above) that there would be a minimum of 5 "Half" years worth of cash ($ 25M/5). Or 2.5 years worth. That would take us to Feb, 2024.
Also assumes no new cash on Sales $ coming form SAMI, EAA, etc. (Aren't we hiring a Mgt team & salespeople ?)
It would seem that Mr. See-to-it is hihgly risk averse, and doesn't like the idea of being caught with little to no cash. I would strongly suggest that he is now more than covered until we get well past the next two critical FDA D-days (now forecasted by the Co. to be 2022).
MM
I will indulge you one more time...and may again assuming a well reasoned response, but only if the quality of your posts don't further regress or digress (to personal attacks on other posters) as they tended to do this afternoon.
I've seen over-alotments taken many times regardless of price...b especially if that was the plan all along...and buyers really know what they are gettgin regardless of trading price....BUT OK lets take that $ 1.5M off the table (and out of the $ 26.5M ) if you prefer. Still leaves $ 25M (before other warrants, options, SAMI orders, Baxter final tranches, etc.)
I don't think so. It would be so improbable that even mentioning it makes you less credible.
In order for the .485 to .50 warrants to be exercised, you only need to see the share price return to its prefinaincing price (the mid .50's) or better yet, the price a month or so before that (the .60's and .70s). The .45's warrants were almost all exercised when the SP was in high forties to low fifties. Plus the facts/fundamentals have not changed that much siince then. In fact , many would argue that the fundamentals have improved (e.g Kellum, DIMI rights extension, insider buying, etc.). Were these warrant exercisers all on glue? BUT, even still, the price doesn't necessarily have to return to those levels "in the near term". They just have to return to that level before the 2.5 years is up (to justify my "we realistically do not need more cash pre- at least one FDA ruling in 2022" argument)...
It is possible that it happens over the next 2.5 years. A lot could happen in the meanwhile and you have said the same thing with respect to the 60 cent share sale with 75 cent warrants. You can't just pull numbers out of the air and count them as fact is all I'm saying. We very well could just as well be doing a financing at 25 cents next year with 30 cent warrants. It's actually more likely because that price is closer to where we are today. But I too hope there is progress that will change things. Just as there might be progress the delta variant is being talked about everywhere in the news and that gives way to a probability that we will have reduced ICU staffing for another year. We might not, but we might. When I did my calculation I put 3 patients a month which is the current highest recorded enrolement rate in Tigris and added 2 for good faith that they live up to their promises of adding another 3 sites and those 3 sites magically start having more patients than usual or alternatively they swap out another 3 sites that have literally 0 patients randomized to date causing things to move forward faster. That best case scenario in my eyes puts us at 60% patient enrolment next September. If all goes well.
For the record, I don't expect the new warants to be exercised unless and until (1) it is needed and (2) a probably very loyal and co-operative group gets the requisite tap on the shoulder.
you may have a point here. I'm just looking at the worst case scenario. They raised money last year and we thought it was enough too. So there's that. Never underestimate managements ability to change the story depending on circumstances.
You may argue that PMX will be delayed another year to 2023 or beyond (by extrapolating based using perhaps a "Covid forever," position and or a return to the pre-Kellum past) but it is not credible. Not only does your argument not take into account new facts (hospital rejigging, ICU re-openieings, new players, Kellum, Mgt statements, etc.) it also does not take into account the timing of the DIMI Trial & a related FDA ruling on that peice. When did that DIMI 30 person Trial/Study approval get moved past 2022? I must have missed that NR. Finally does the market not anticpate a rulling before it happens ?
DIMI has never moved the needle here. I don't know why, but it hasn't. Guadagni just resigned too. Does anyone know why? Why did he leave after all these years to work elsewhere when this was going to be such a home run??? Maybe he conceded that someone else is better for the job. I don't know. No one does but I can tell you the market didn't like the news. I personally am happy he left, only because I didn't see any results in sales.
Finally you argue that the burn rate is going way up.
Firstly I factored in an increase to the burn rate .
Secondly, you can't have it both ways. The Trial can't both crawl along at the snail's pace that you suggest that it will continue to do, while at the same time the burn rate is increasing (due to Trial activity) It's either one or the other isn't it? (serious responses only - not more gaslighting)
the burn rate is going up (I didn't say way up but Now that you have.. it probably is going way up) due to increased trial expenses. Note that we are already preemptively assuming that they are correct and that as a result of this increase they will have 5 patients per month. At the moment the highest number has been 3, no? So no argument there.
In addition they are trying to ramp up dimi trial and add dimi sales people. So yes, you can't have one and the other. I gave you 5 per month and said the result would be increased cost.
There is still ambiguity as to what DIALCO components are worth, so far very little value attributed and quite a few expenses incurred despite FDA approved device SAMI.
The $ 6M (CAD ) on Baxter Tranche # 2 is an educated based in part on past discussions I have had with IR..and I rounded it down. The timing of that should be no later than Q1 or Q2 2022, unless Baxter doesn't like what they see (despite repeated assurances to the contrary from Spectral that they should based on early enrollment).
At least you admit it's a guess. But it's just a guess, and assuming the trial takes even slightly longer and assuming your statement about Seto being risk averse... can we also assume that if the burn rate goes to 6M per half a year if there is a delay in Tigris or DIMI without drastically increased revenue they will be going out to the market to raise another 10? Or do you think they'll be going down to the wire. Can't have it both ways... the cost can't stay the same if more hospitals come onboard and trial participation goes up.
MM
honestly my man, it's not my intention to bash the company. I really do own shares but I don't like being taken for a fool. I take diligent notes of all management statements and I document every press release and investor presentation. Than I put all those facts on separate whiteboards for each of my investments. I check those milestones regularly to see which investments are living up to their expectations. Guess which investment is always late with results or sometimes the result doesn't come at all... you guessed it. There's something to be said about that. I believe there is a chance here but I can't fathom who runs a company like this.