RE:Today's Conspiracy TheoryInteresting theory, Ronnie - and not entirely implausible but here are a few practical points:
- Endeavour is now a UK listed plc and subject to the so called ("City Code", governed by the Takeover Panel.
- Under the Code, there are two ways a takeover can take place: a scheme of arrangement or a "traditional offer". A scheme of arrangement must be agreed by Endeavour's board. I'd be rather disappointed if they accepted a C$40 offer. If not, that only leaves the traditional offer route which can be hostile.
- To take control of the board/company, Barrick would need acceptances from at least 50% of the shares. If we assume that La Mancha wouldn't accept a C$40 offer (I don't think they would), that means that 62.5% of the remaining shares would have to accept for Barrick's offer to succeed.
- Even if Barrick's offer succeeded at the 50% level, they could not delist Endeavour from the LSE unless they can get 75% of the total votes to vote in favour of delisting. Can't see any of the shareholders who don't accept Barrick's offer voting in favour of delisting. In practice, Barrick can't take complete control of the company without 75% of the votes - a very high hurdle. [90% is required to "squeeze out" remaining shareholders who don't accept].
This reminds me a bit of Pfizer's offer for AstraZeneca in 2014 (I was and am an AZN shareholder). At the time their final £55 offer (an increase on their opening offer and with the shares trading at around £35 before the offer) seemed quite generous but AZN's CEO made a strong case that the company was worth more and Pfizer's approach was ultimately rejected. Astra's share price now? £82 and shareholders who held on have been well rewarded with chunky dividends between then and now.
In conclusion: you could be right and Barrick might try it but I doubt they'd succeed without a substantially more generous offer.
Meanwhile let's wait & see what the resource updates due before the end of year have to say and what the three DFSs due early next year also reveal.
Cheers,
Mark
Cheers,
Mark