RE:The trifecta sending ELD above $10 in April is still in playStockguru2017 wrote: By April, it's very possible for ELD to be trading above $10, the reason is because the trifecta listed below will likely all converge around that time. Keep in mind that if the trifecta comes into effect the above $10 per share estimate is not an exaggeration, it is very realistic and probable.
Here is the trifecta:
1) A solution will be presented at the end of March to fix Kisladag and improve recoveries. In June, 2017, before any problems at Kisladag were announced, ELD was trading above $5. It was trading at this level without any resolution in Greece in sight, so it's very probable that if the market embraces the fix presented at the end of Q1, ELD will go to $5.
2) Arbitration in Greece will conclude on April 6th. It's expected that the arbitration ruling will go in ELD's favour because 2 out of the 3 panel members side with ELD on the issue of receiving permits for Skouries. If ELD rises to $5 the week before the ruling is announced, it can easily double from there to $10 on April 6th.
3) If the price of gold rises above $1400 in April, it will further propel the share price of ELD upwards, so $12-$15 is a possibility.
This all sounds too good to be true, but the scenario above is very probable by April if everything goes right for ELD and the price of gold rises at the same time.
l'd be very happy with $4.
Regarding Kinsladay, if they decided to run it thru a mill instead of using agglomeration then you're looking at 2 to 3 years of little or no produciton while they get permits and build the plant. I would guess that building a plant is ELDs last option but if it provides more flexibility on processing the different types of ore and gives a better return over 25 years then they might bite the bullet and build a plant. If it's agglomeration at a decent recovery rate, then yes, the SP will jump $1.50 to $2. If it's a plant, then a small pop but not much.
They extended the negotiations to April which means to me so complicated that extra time is needed for experts to analyze and give testimony. Always a chance that Greeks could prevail and Eldorado would have to come up with another way to purify the metals.I don't have any idea what the outcome will be and neither does the market. If ELD wins, then yes, a $2 jump in SP. If ELD loses, market will wait and see what ELD proposes to do: 1) use a different process, 2) negotiate shipping the metals to another country for processing, or 3) pull out of Greece when current operations are complete. Whatever ELD decides to do if it loses, it will have to take some amount of write-off which won't help the SP.
Don't forget Lamaque. Should be hearing results of bulk sampling and plans for production any day now. That will help.