Middlefield has likely reinvested the divi by now My Expected NAV has been back to matching the Reported NAV for the last couple of days. That means Middlefield has 99% for sure reinvested the divi it recently received from ENB
ENB has now completed the purchased the two biggest segnments of the natgas acquistion from Dominion. Together, the two segments account for 80% of the EBITDA for the entire deal. Since the deals are closed, ENB had to have the funding in place. That leaves the Carolina segment outstanding and ENB has already cleared a prospectus for $2.7 billion to cover the funding.
Experienced has suggested that the market has already priced in the next ENB Raise. To that end, ENB closed at $50.33 on May 15th, the day before the Raise was announced. At the time of this post, ENB is trading at $49.06. That means the price has moved down $1.27. When you divide the drop by $50.33, the share price has discounted 2.5%. Given that the expected Raise is much smaller than the September 2023 Raise ($2.7 billion vs $4.6 billion) and that 80% of the Dominion deal has already closed (thereby removing the uncertainty of regulatory authorities messing things up), I would agree with Experienced's suggestion that the market has probably priced in most of the expected discount already.
The Premium to the NAV is trading under 3%. which is a very reasonable premium imo under the circumstances.
I anticipate adding to my ENS position when ENB announces the Raise to finance the Public Service Company of North Carolina in the belief that the market will over react in a negative way to the Raise like it always does. I think the dip in the ENB price will be very short lived as the market realizes that the price had already been discounted and that the size of the deal doesn't move the needle at all for ENB which has announced a $25 billion CAPEX program.
My guess is that ENB will announce that it will raise its 2025 divi to $3,80 per share for 2025. I anticipate that ENB will start to loosen the purse strings a bit once the Dominion acquisition has been consolidated.
The difficulty when it comes to bumping the divi is that a business decision has to be made to choose a divi bump over spending on CAPEX. ENB appears to have prettty much endless 20% ROI opportunities to choose from based on small add-on build outs which don't have any political as risk. Therefore, declaring out-sized divi increases doesn't make sense.
As an ENS shareholder, I would like to see ENB increase its dividend faster and for longer because that plan would reduce the cash flow risk of owning a ENS. However, every time ENB gets stronger in terms of cash flow or diversifying away from sunset assets such as oil pipelines, the risk of the ENB share dropping down below $33 per share for anything beyond a temporary blip (where ENS would need to supend its monthly divi) gets further and further away.
There is only one real risk imo in owning ENS which is the risk of illiquidity. However, I have found that I can move in and out of large positions much more easily than I would have thougtht without getting skinned by the pros. The bids always show as being pretty limited, but there are usually pretty big buy orders sitting not far off the bids.