RE:The target keeps movingObscure....
A friend of mine in the "business" said to me a long time ago "When you think you have figured out the market, they will change the locks." I think that is what you are suffering from.
With that in mind, when things are close to something happening - like in this case, the math for a raise, I make my move and then sit on my eagle perch and wait for it to happen and then swoop down for the kill. I don't spend time trying to micro manage the decision - especially at my age since hurts too much to think that hard. So in this case, I got out last Friday and am patiently waiting for the next shoe to drop and then will make a decision whether to reload or not.
That said, the whole thing could be very simple. The other side of the equation is that for the overnight sale of shares to be successful, there has to be enough buyers for the millions of shares to be sold in the raise. The brokers (financial advisors) for the firms doing the deal may simply be providing feedback after talking to key clients that there isn't enough interest in buying that many shares at this point or that the price they will buy at changes the math for one side or the other and has little to do with the points that you articulate in your post.