E Split Corp T.ENS

The target keeps moving

[Obscure1]

Nice sale Rick.  I got off 3/4 of my ENS at an average of $12.15 and regret the fact that I didn't hammer the balance out.  The market keeps handing us lessons. 

I enjoy analysing numbers from public comanies as the patterns can be used as a predictive tool...until they don't.

Every metric that I have been playing with tells me that Middlefield should have already done a Raise but they haven't.  I have assumed that Middlefield has breach points with their metrics which would automatically trigger a Raise.  Either they keep changing the metrics or I'm losing my mind.  Maybe both. 

Here are a some random factors that keep rattling around in my head:

* the Premium to the NAV for the commons closed at 16.5% which is higher than it was for the last Raise
* it appears that the costs associated with doing the last Raise declined as a % of capital raised.  was that a one time thing or an ongoing situation? I'm trying to confirm that math as Middlefield discloses nothing more than "we did a deal at x for y dollars".  when i was doing deals to raise capital for publicly traded companies in the past, we had to disclose the details so it bugs me to see such minimal disclosure
* for the past several years, the share price of ENB typically dropped by at lest 2x the amount of the divi after ENB went ex-divi.
* when ENB went ex-divi in Nov, 2023, the stock bottomed down $1.31 which was only 1.44x the divi which means what?  a one time thing or a sudden new appreciation of the math as opposed to a random emotional response?
* other than the temporary dip in the share price of ENB last fall when the Dominion deal was announced and the company did an overnight Raise of $4.6 billion, a similar $1.30 drop in the share price of ENB ex-divi would take the ENB share price down to a 3 year low. since then, ENB closed on an incredibly good deal for the LNG port and pipelines to the Permian as well as growing internally.  does that mean ENB is under valued now or was it over valued in early 2021?  I'm voting the former
* why is Middlefield waiting to Rasise money when an 8 day delay before closing is taking them beyond the ability to buy ENB shares before they go ex-divi?  We know that they crave dividend payments to finance their operations like every Split management company as 5 divi's in 367 days is a powerful carrot for divi hunters.   As owners of about 1% of the outstanding ENB shares, do they have "insight"  into the ENB numbers that will be presented before the market opens on Friday and are waiting to pounce on an anticipated discount?  
* does the ENS fund have the ability to buy on margin in advance of the expectation that they will be closing on a deal in the near future (the answer will be in the prospectus but I'm too lazy to look now)?

The more I think, the more confused I get.  That is not why I like playing with numbers.

[Experienced]

Obscure.... A friend of mine in the "business" said to me a long time ago "When you think you have figured out the market, they will change the locks."  I think that is what you are suffering from. With that in mind, when things are close to something happening - like in this case, the math for a raise, I make my move and then sit on my eagle perch and wait for it

[rickkulesza]

Thx for your insights, I am following them, and like I said, 11.40 ? Thx

[Obscure1]

Rick:  The live Premium to the NAV is 16.65% as I write this but it keeps jumping around as the volatility is higher than normal.  At 16.65%, we remain vurnerable to a Raise..  The price of ENS offered to buyers was $0.27 less than the market price for the last Raise.  If we use the same $0.27 discount, then the Raise would be done at $11.50 as the current price is $11.77 The

[rickkulesza]

Dry powder ready for 11, thx for the appreciated advise,  rinse and repeat !

[Experienced]

rick....assuming we see a raise in the near future and the SP stays where it is now going into the raise and the SP follows historical patterns (as always an "if"), you will likely see a dip in the SP below $11.