RE:RE:keeping the lid on
Thanks Ratty ... mixed messages coming out of SSL that now holds a key minority share block at 25% or so. Nolan Watson was musing about cleaning up unconventional assets this year and specifically mentioned ETG - the feeling being if they want better peer to,peer streaming valuation then they need to merge with another smaller streamer, and that won't happen if they aren't "purer".
Then our friend Fruity reports David Awram was making noises this week about they might be in the market for more ETG and see it as deeply undervalued.
Timing ... who knows. There is a lot to recommend TRQ giving paper to ETG holders if the ratio was right. Some ETG holders say they could live with 10 for 1, tough sell perhaps with TRQ and its minority holders but they would be getting some plum assets for around $500 million of their paper at that price. What might be attractive about TRQ is the ability to roll the whole JV into OTLLC and thus solve the IA treatment and Mongolian 34% ownership questions outstanding still, after ... 14 years to negotiate and no movement?
Man, what a cash machine OT could be for Mongolia and Rio Tinto for decades if they tie it all up and copper and gold stay in high demand. One of the things about copper that might be attractive is even if there is a severe economic contraction, the political push for green energy, electrical solutions to pollution and climate issues makes copper-heavy expenditures a likely fiscal stimulus expenditure by government if the consumer economy slows. Or at least how I see it.
Th8ngs definitely looking up, but you could still have years to wait here for full value. But moving up slow and steady beats going in the other direction any day. To me there should be an upward reprice and new resistance at a level higher than $1.20 or so CDN, but we'll see. A market cap of $200 million USD still seems pretty thin. There is so much upside on the JV property, not just Lifts 1 and 2 HNE as currently modelled, but expansion - especially of Lift 2, Heruga remains a monster ore reserve, and there are multiple, multiple juicy drill targets over a massive area. And Shivee West ... who knows what might be out there.
cg