Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Received Email From IR

[solarcradle]

I received an email from IR today. 

The new rooms have been in operation since the fall and have each have had at least one full harvest.  

Supreme finished construction on approximately 100,000 sqft of additional completed rooms which are awaiting Health Canada approval.

They expect full completion of the build out by the end of March. After their approval by HC it will take approximately 2-3 months and then each flowering room will have had a minimum of one harvest.

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My thoughts

7Acres was licensed to grow in 90k sqft on Sept 5, 2018. Q1 ended Sept 30, 2018. We anticipate Q2 financials in March, for the months of Oct to Dec end.

Approximate yields @ $5/g or $5000/kg

13000kg / 12 months = 1083 kg per month ($5.4 million per month)

13333kg / 12 months = 1111 kg per month  ($5.6 million per month)

 

Approximate yields @ $6/g or $6000/kg

13000kg / 12 months = 1083 kg per month ($6.5 million per month)

13333kg / 12 months = 1111 kg per month  ($6.7 million per month)

 

My guess is 10 to 15m+ for Q2. 

[Finnishflash101]

Solar! I think your estimation is close. People who are predicting 20 mil revenues are over estimating Supremes growing capacity at current time. Their products are often sold out at OCS and Alberta stores. The demand is there but not enough to sell... I would expect their plans to sell in Quebec would come into fruition after their capacity is increased to full production.

[LovingLoveWEED]

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[theTransporter]

$20M is possible if you consider revenue from trim product and existing inventory that would have been completely sold coming into the quarter.  Both figues not considered by solar's math.

[maritimedreamer]

also agree..... but right now i much rather a very conservative number then a high estimate number. No matter what all we need is supreme's financials to make a solid splash so people will look this way. With the number of analysts following us has anyone put out their projection for revenue sales? (someitmes its more if we meet/surpass/or fail to achieve analysts projections is what matters).

[maritimedreamer]

wait until the medigrow reveue starts to come in.... or the ultra premium profits.... thats when things will start to get really interesting revenues imo

[solarcradle]

Hey Transporter. I did take trim into mind in my estimation. I agree! It is possiblle that we hit as high as 20m, only if the most recent 50k sqft grow rooms were fully utilized in Sept or early Oct. What if some of the rooms that have experienced at least one full harvest were harvested late Dec or in Jan? I was estimating with these things in mind, considering anything sold after Dec end would

[theTransporter]

Add the revenue for "trim" product on top of that. What boggles my mind is how long it takes Health Canada to approve the rooms.  Everyone is crying about a shortage, yet these lazy beaurocrats seem to take their sweet time to enable more supply!!  You have a company with a proven model and proven quality program who just needs the whip of a pen to enable more capacity, but

[OptGreen]

Agreed Trans, especially when the 10,000ft2 grows rooms are 'cookie cutter' areas and are designed as such in large part for the efficient approval process by HC....there is no reason for HC to not be able to complete their inspections of the 7ACRES facilities in hours/ days not weeks/ months, JMHO....Opt

[maritimedreamer]

Solar, i think you numbers are "pretty solid" and i would agree 10-15 should def be in our ball park.  It also depends on PPG.... and what the overall average sale price would be. No matter what it will certainly be a strong Q o Q form this time last year..... and start to show what supreme is really all about. Thanks for sharing as always! 

[nearnorth101]

$10-15 million  is still very good numbers and compared to others we should be trading well over $1.80 a share compared to what other companies revs are. Until the extra capacity is approved we are stuck at just over 1000kg per month, around $5-6 million a month

[OptGreen]

Agreed nn, $10-15mil per quarter is the low end....$5.5mil per month is ~$16.5mil per quarter. The production from the current grow area of ~90,000ft2 should be in the 1,300- 1,400kg per range, add what was in the vault and what will be ready for shpping in the near term and $15-20mil per quarter is very doable until new 100,000ft2 is under crop...depending on HC's action or inaction!! In any

[nearnorth101]

When the fniancials are announced and if the numbers are $10-15 million or more this should be a $3 - $4  stock minimum when compared to what the others are doing. Time for the new PR pepple to earn their keep

[Bever73]

Well the.company that was doing a poor job promoting supreme in the past was "bought out for millions" by supreme......?? There has been a heavy increase in fluff promotional articles in media that no one really follows..... What they really need is some credibility /partnerships/ and not a RS hanging over their heads. Cornerstone just released an article in SA about the best picks for

[jfogarty12]

One  wonders  WHEN those  financials  will be disclosed  ???

[nearnorth101]

Financials are due end of February 

[solarcradle]

Yep! Maybe we will see financials a little sooner, again. Or not.  Q2 reporting period due by March 1, 2019

[OptGreen]

Apologies, getting ahead of myself and I missed a month there...just a little rational exuberance due to 4yrs of waiting, Alzheimer's or a combination of both?, JMHO....Opt

[TMoney007]

Financials are due mid February.  We don’t report on the venture anymore as we are moving to the non venture tsx.

[solarcradle]

Sounds good to me. I'll have a look into financial reporting on the TSX. Thanks

[maritimedreamer]

If I recall last quarterly supreme released them almost a million nth earlier then most expected.....they announced theirs after the big boys did....proving that they can play ball in the big leagues....so mb supreme will do the same this time as most big LPs are reporting shortly (?).. ..just a thought

[OptGreen]

I like that $3-4 range much better nn...this being the hottest sector on the planet and FIRE hitting Brand of the Year, with Canaccord et al investing ~$90mil 3yrs ago, and part of an ATF, I can't imagine there is any investor anywhere that would not be aware of this sector and this stock by now...but hey, if they can work it in great. I think they need just focus on getting more product on

[OptGreen]

Much appreciated SC, the update from IR is consistant with what the company has been since the AGM....powerful stuff, to double current production capacity will require additional resources that will include additional staffing, processing and suppy pipeline coordination over the next few months, pending HC approval performance. Your 2nd quarter estimate, albeit not unreasonable, will hopefully

[solarcradle]

Good question, Opt. I'm excited that Supreme will be growing Wiz Khalifa's KK strain! I tried the product recently, from a dispensary, and I put it at the top of my fav strains, along with 7Acres' Jean Guy!  Let's go Health Canada!! We still have 2.5 months of Q3 growth. 

[LovingLoveWEED]

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