Supreme Cannabis Company Inc. (The) T.FIRE

Valuation - VFF Raymond

[johnale]

and say, “VFF is trading at 5x 2022 EV/EBITDA, while its peers average 29x: an event that should be catalytic for VFF’s share price.”

Raymond James commentary on why VFF jumped. 

what about FIRE!!! 

2022 ebita - if we flatline at projected q4 rev of 24mil - and 6mil ebita - would be 24++ mil in ebita. 

At 29x - would be a 700mil valuation and over $1/share TODAY!!! 

obviously we are not a direct comparable - but even at 5x ebita/ev works out to 17cents and that's with no growth. 

[johnale]

Sarugaser asks and answers the question, “Where Do We Go From Here?” He says that the market values cannabis companies based on multiples of revenue. He says that the recent 55% run has helped close the valuation gap, but it’s, “certainly not enough to entirely eliminate the wide asymmetry that existed.” Village now trades at 5.9 times 2021 and 3.4 times 2022 EV/Revenue, which is roughly a 25

[Pedal2themetal7]

Have a look at Fire's chart since Beena took over, and look at Aphrias, or most of the top companies. Fire has been free falling since. If they rely on numbers to move the SP, they better increase the revenues substantially, if they continue with these small increments it's going to be a very long haul. Whatever is happening with this company is not passing the smell test. It's

[johnale]

Beenas job IMO - Is to build a real, successful buisness here.  its not to figure out how to move the stock price this week or next.  It's to build a lasting profitable buisness with real brands. IMO - she is most definitely doing this - and is a couple quarters away from cementing fires position in this sector as a top 7 player.  My frustration - is with the blatant

[vulcan123456789]

well said john... fully agree... who the hell needs bashers when we have known frustrated investors bashing ourselves.. if i was new on tbe outside looking in i would second guess dipping in here with many of their own comments.. your not helping your own situation but i do understand the frustration with the manipulation.. just have to wait. like many have said im not selling at these levels

[johnale]

Here's a perfect example... In BMO's report -  they estimated 3mil rec sales in September and agreed it was accelerating.  266k +ebita beat their 2mil loss forcast (pretty large beat) They believe the wholesale sales - due to relationships with LPs will be stable (and other distribution channels)  they increased their estimate for q2 from 14mil to 15mil with gross

[vulcan123456789]

doesnt make sense at all. like i said a few days ago .. its like a huge money laundering scheme.. total control barely moving share price yet millions of shares moving.. big fish frutrating retail . until they acumulate all they can.. in the end they will run it up.. otherwise there is no point in the accumulation. but it appears we have no control.. in the end its the big guys that will hold the

[theTransporter]

The analysts are IN on this game!  They are colluding with the MMs here.   Beena should HALT this stock until Q2 is released.  This will lock out the MMs of thier ability to make money, and those with an open short position will have no choice but to pay interest on their open position.  This would be cruel but a good way to fu.ck them up.  Whoever complains the most

[Pedal2themetal7]

I fully agree with your assessment, as I mentioned in my post, I support the bold and necessary moves she has made. I definitely agree with a solid base and strong fundamentals, but for the last few years it's been the next quarter company, always missing the mark.  The current CEO inherited a company with many flaws but had an operation almost completed when she took over. I understand

[johnale]

Ya I hear where your coming from. For sure.  further to that smell test - and BMOs report- BMO every day - sets up an iceberg on the debentures at 50. Every day. I've hit the buy there several times - and it's always them on the sell.  End of day it disappears and the next ask is 55 or 62.50.  do they want to sell a big position? Or are they holding it down. 

[Pedal2themetal7]

They're definitely keeping a close eye on Supreme, bank are not in the business of losing money.  If the company can have solid 2 or 3 Qs and show profitability, going to be interesting what BMO does.

[maritimedreamer]

Same happens on the equity Johnale... the ask a few hrs b4 open is pretty negligible...mb one large ask out there a penny up.... then literally mins before the open the asks get stacked with 7 figure and a large number of orders to give a perception people are running to the exits.... but yes someone keeps buying up the shares that are being sold.... of course going to the regulators would be

[bever64]

Beena and upper mgmt cannot do ANYTHING because mmcap have their "fangs" in this thing to the tune of 33% (or close to that) when you go to the mob for protection you always pay in the end. If they wanted to turf all of mgmt or turf the company alltogether for peanuts they could. THEY HOLD ALL THE CARDS AND ONLY CARE ABOUT $$$ NOT SHAREHOLDERS. They will short their own stock

[johnale]

Ya to me and this is just my opinion - you don't hold a stock down to dump your position.  it's definitely an accumulation tactic.  beena was inserted to run the company and turn it around - and she has. make it investable - and/or saleable.  (she even says m and a is an option in her article) MM holds all the cards on a takeover - and whatever other cronies they

[vulcan123456789]

fully agree john... just have to see how it plays out.. my average is far below .41.. and ive accumulated large.. so however it goes i should do well in time.. hope your in same boat

[maritimedreamer]

Ya and that's what scares me as I can't get my a rug down and I'm way higher of an average. Can't drop new $ to a rig down until new year.... when will the next q be released? Frebruary? So I'll have 2 months to drop my Vargas down more.... dang Babbitt.... those million dollar asks just keep coming back after open....good times.  But it's Friday! 

[Method]

John, Aren't you surprised at how many people on this board still want to own the common over the debentures?  Small investors have a chance to be in a better position than MM by not owning any common and being protected by having MM with them as the majority debenture holder while getting paid to wait. I don't know what the future holds for Supreme but when the market offers more

[bever64]

Im not surprised...people are generally lazy and uncomfortable learning about different things. Liquidity is a concern for the debs....you are correct that they are easily the better investment.i bought commons 2 days b4 earnings with the intent of selling 2 days after earnings....i suppose their is a chance for a swing up 50% to .21 while the debs go from 50.00 -55.00???? Dunno. Seems to be a

[Method]

Your answer Bever, no offence, shows that you really don't understand the debs either. The floor for the debs is basically the adjusted conversion price. That's because you can convert them at any time which is why 700k have already been converted.  If the stock jumps to $0.21, the converts would go to at least 0.21/0.285 or 73.68. If not those of us holding debs can just convert

[johnale]

To answer your previous question method - yes I'm a little surprised.  although there are a few lurkers who private message me and have bought debentures.  But they can be confusing/difficult to grasp - and I think the prevailing thought is if you don't understand something - don't invest in it. (I had one friend use that excuse)  but right now - with the ask at

[bever64]

No offense taken! Learning opportunity...i thought the only way to convert was "forced" or past .28c ! Even more reason to buy when the math supports it.

[Method]

Glad to hear. That's why some converts after the restructuring have already been converted to stock. Out of the $36.5m in new debentures outstanding when the restructuring was complete, $28.3m, is owned by MM and I believe at least $0.8m ($0.7 reported) has been converted, leaving $7.4m of converts outstanding. I rather own the debs where the amount outstanding is shrinking vs the common

[Pedal2themetal7]

If you look at the trend, the companies which received financial backing from partners were freed of the tight grip, they'll continue holding this down until it shows they can be profitable. Beena was brought on board for a reason but she's constantly facing headwinds. She's doing a good job navigating these obstacles but something needs to be done regarding this manipulation.  

[Hopeful123]

I am new here..looks like they have cash..not sure of debt though. Any feedback..ty.I own at 40 cts.

[Pedal2themetal7]

https://financialpost.com/cannabis/how-a-handful-of-hedge-funds-cornered-cannabis-financing-and-made-a-killing-in-the-process Dated but still a good read.

[valuetrader17]

That was a great read.  This looks to me like a sort of investor rope-a-dope.  You short the stock to oblivion and accumulate cheap shares as weak hands sell off.  Maybe cover with a bought deal and even if the company does well your still hedged and gain on the upswing.  I just hope FIRE can go a few quarters without having to raise more cash.

[Pedal2themetal7]

And Beena is leftt maneuvering around land mines. Between BMO and MMcap!!! when a company cannot climb higher then a nickel after a somewhat decent Q !!!!!!