RE:RE:RE:I'd like your opinion on the following scenarioTheLongView,
I admire your attempts to look further then the crowd into future M&A in the fossil fuel sector. Seems a bit like forecasting climate change from my limited point of view, lots of moving pieces, and very few people objectively seeking truth. I hope you are well rewarded for your efforts. I very much enjoy the topic, but I have little experience in divining M&A activity. Now I understand how you picked The LongView as your nickname.
My paradigm is a bit simpler, but by no means assured to be accurate. First, a quick story :-) I started investing in 2004, after reading a book called "Peak Oil" by Stephen Leeb. In retrospect the book was rather basic, but it opened my eyes to some basic facts that I was unaware of at that time. The worlds economy is literally driven by oil, and oil is a finite resource. Not exactly earth shattering information to a seasoned investor, but it was actually news to me :-) About 20 years later, profits, losses, mistakes, and battle scars have helped form my current investing paradigm.
My investing paradigm for last few years:
1. Oil / gas have been undervalued for several years for numerous reasons.
2. The transition to renewables has been greatly exaggerated as well.
3. The above two issues will self correct over time, O&G and renewables will live in harmony one day.
4. I must maintain my Oil / Gas positions long enough to catch the inflection in oil price, the point in time where society recognizes the value of O&G.
Needless to say, I have endured several years of pain waiting for this "Inflection".
There is a reason I am not an investment advisor :-) The lost opportunity costs alone may never be recovered, time wil tell. Thankfully recovery is well under way.
The point of all my comments is to humbly suggest an alternative to forcasting M&A in oil & Gas. What if you simply forecast the inflection point in the financial markets, the point in time where O&G assets are properly valued. Seems to me, we are finally heading towards fair valuations, still plenty of upside to be had for O&G imo though.
Once humanity realizes that renewables will exist in harmony with limited O&G supplies, vast wealth will already have been accumulated in O&G sector by those who accurately captured the inflection.
My thoughts for today,
Nukester