A combination of morningstar, stockwatch buy/sell data going back several months and price performance at suspicious dates I am 99% sure Nuttall is out and the vast majority of his selling has likely finished. I say this as someone who loaded up at $1.41 on Friday, so I am not trying to deprive anyone of their shares. I also view this as a positive thing, massive selling pressure will be relieved as the NCIB kicks in. From his perspective, his fund is growing much larger and holding a 380m cap probably doesn't make sense and it was better to consolidate it into another holding.
So lets start:
- April 7th a massive block of ATH is purchased, and on morningstar updated april 30th, 2022 shows Ninepoint added 15M shares. Morningstar now does not show Ninepoint under Gear, but a NEW institution EHP, acquired roughly 11M shares updated April 30th, 2022.
- Broker data for RBC (institution he trades through) shows that for the first time this year on April 7th, RBC's net GXE position went from positive to negative. RBC's net negative position continued to expand to roughly 7.5m and has remained flat since April 21st even after the May 13th close.
- Anonymous broker’s position had been sitting flat for about a month until April 18th, (the day there was the massive cross trade for GXE). From April 18th until May 13th, the net position has decreased by roughly 7m (including -1.1m on may 13th).
- Now for the magic... add RBC’s dump [7.5m] , Anon’s dump [7m], and the acquisiton by EHP [11m] together and you get ~25.5m shares (Nuttall had 25m). The other 500k would just be retail trading GXE through RBC and routine market making through anon. This can’t be a coincidence..
From this data, a ton of the selling should be over with. Now if the broader markets dump or oil crashes this will obviously follow the market. But soon we should see greater upside. Notice how Gear never went above $1.65, the top on the day of the massive cross trade. The cross trade was settled at an average price of $1.60, also the high of the price on April 7th. This situation is bullish if you look at what happened to ATH early Feb. when Nutall initially sold off in Jan. The next variable dividend will be MASSIVE at current oil pricing.
GLTA
Morningstar Links: Click on Institutions to see the updated data for April 30th, 2022