Thoughts Been traiding NG for years.EIA was repeating since spring" do not worry" by first of november storage level will be in the range to meet winter demand. Becauce we have oversuply. Realy ?.If this was true why did not hapen ?.
We are so far from last year and 5 year average.Last draw was huge.I went 10 years back november 16 could not see bigger number.They try to calm down the market again teling that producers will be more than willing to sell NG on this price./if they have it/ Year over year EIA reports increase of supply 7-8 bqf /d /72 to 91 bqf/d for last couple of years or 7-8% increase of production /suplpy/inport/ per year.Lately they are saying that supply and demand are balansed !!.Sorry ? I did not go to Harvard but if the storage level are lower year over year -balance is broken.And if this winter is not mild let say she is normal we will enter the heating season with huge negative gap. 600-700-800 bqf/d. Imagine if we have colder and longer than usualy winter than the numbers could be catastrophic.
".What we have mised ? " Better prices on Export side ?.Less NG rigs? Lack.of Pipelines or something else ? Any way there is a REASON.
I do not expect prices to go much lower for this winter unless weather has less HDD , but plenty of volatility and oportunities.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
G.
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