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The US Federal Reserve is helping so much that it hurts

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According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

https://is.gd/5vle0j

Strategy Snippet

You can have too much of a good thing

The Fed is helping so much it hurts

We have noted that each incremental instance of monetary stimulus has been met with diminishing returns for risk assets. We think further easing, or a lack of tightening, in the U.S. is a negative for stocks. The expectation for Thursday’s FOMC policy decision was a rate hike and dovish commentary, or no hike and hawkish commentary. Instead, the Fedleft rates unchanged and delivered a dovish message. In response, the S&P 500 sold off into the close and was down the next day. As we have noted recently, the biggest risk toequities could be another round of QE—suggesting that $4.5tn was not enough to prop up the U.S. economy. Also, the read across for global risk assets could be that significant liquidity provided by central banks may not always be sufficient to drive markets higher.

Tactical delay or real economic deterioration?

Our base case is that the Fed’s lack of action is a tactical delay, and therefore does not impact our outlook. We are maintaining our recently lowered S&P 500 year-end target of 2100. We note that our technical team sees risks to the bull market, and our global quant team’s Global Wave has been declining for the last eight months. Our economists’ real- time indicator of global growth, the GLOBALcycle, softened in August (led by EMs), and we will be closely watching for signs of stabilization or further deterioration.

The Fed on hold = more of the same

The story for the last five years looks set to continue for at least the next few months. With easy monetary policy and a scarcity of growth and value, we would expect to see positive momentum in Growth and Dividend Yield stocks continue. But, given our economists’ expectations for a pick-up in global growth over the next several quarters, buying cheap, unloved cyclicals could start to play out. This would also be true for Energy, which is the ultimate pain trade. Energy has record low valuations, ownership and investor sentiment, and our commodity strategists forecast a year-end rally in oil prices.

Multinationals: intersection of quality & weak dollar beneficiaries

Buying multinationals looks increasingly attractive. These high quality stocks are beaten- down, inexpensive and under-owned by active funds. The companies have produced upsideearnings surprises, and the stocks have been outperforming since mid-August, despite the volatility associated with concerns about global growth. The performance of foreign- exposed stocks is now more correlated to moves in the US dollar than at any point in nearly a decade. Dollar strength has been a source of pain for multinationals so far this year, but this could reverse if a dovish Fed exerts more downward pressure on the dollar.

China risks - avoid Materials

With the recent slowdown in China, we are mindful of the risk of a recession. The area most exposed to China is the Materials sector. This sector’s performance is most highly correlated with China’s stock market, as well as with monetary conditions in the region. Metals and Mining looks particularly unattractive given overcapacity in China, and screens as a Value Trap in our work. Health Care is the least correlated with China.