RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BUY BUY BUY! not.....No short position. Not invested in any of the companies mentioned in this thread (yet). Just telling it the way I see it.
Interesting discussion.
My thoughts:
First, current market caps and total number of shares outstanding as an initial basis of comparison among the following companies:
ARTG: Market Cap 895M Shares 193M
IAU: Market Cap 845M Shares 246M
SKE: Market Cap 638M Shares 78M
MOZ: Market Cap 340M Shares 396M
IAU:
1)
2022 Gold Production: 21,097 ounces at an AISC of $1,182 per ounce (a rather modest amount, though helpful in partially offsetting ongoing costs)
2) Lots of money still needed to be spent on
the numerous projects and seem to be a long way away from attaining sizeable increases in production of gold and/or other metal and mineral resources will occur:
Ruby Hill Property: Major drill program underway, Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) being completed for the underground gold mineralization, permitting ongoing for underground development, detailed metallurgical work and processing plan under development
Granite Creek Property: Underground development progress, mining rate increasing, economic studies and revised resource estimate being completed
Lone Tree Property: Cost estimate for the restart of the autoclave facility completed and work on the Class III Engineering (detailed engineering) Study underway, Ongoing residual leach program
McCoy-Cove Property: Underground development progress to more than 70% completion, ~40,000 metre underground drill program underway
Buffalo Mountain Property: Drilling program completed in late 2022, assessing potential for an open pit mining operation
“2023 is expected to be a catalyst-rich year with exploration, development, and mining projects complemented by economic studies and resource updates” stated Ewan Downie, CEO of i-80. “This work will continue to provide information so that we can make an informed decision related to the sequencing of the start-up of our two processing facilities to achieve our industry-best production growth plan.”
Appears like completion of the processing facilities is still at least a few years away with a lot of money still to be spent.
3)
No Proven or Probable Reserves to date for the new projects.
To date, seems to have M&I and Inferred ounces of Au and Ag only.
Other comments:
- These appear to be brownfield projects with IAU trying to extract more ounces of metals/minerals from past mining operations.
- Equinox still retains a significant stake in IAU (just under 20%)
- Thus, seems to have a big upside, but the payoff seems to be at least a few years away with a lot of time and money needed to be spent in the interim. Does IAU already have full funding/financing for all these upcoming costs, or will more equity raises / other forms of financing need to be obtained?
IAU Summary:
IAU: I consider trying to advance multiple projects simultaneously to be quite risky and perhaps too overly ambitious. In my view, the best gold mining investments are not the biggest companies, but rather those companies with good size and scale that are ultimately the most profitable.
OTHER COMPANIES:
SKE:
Another Brownfield Project with Feasibility Study in hand containing very impressive numbers re. NPV, IRR, Payback Period, Free Cash Flow, and AISC.
However:
-The current projected first pour target date is currently estimated to be almost three years away (Q1 2026) and given this period of time, unanticipated additional expenses and/or project delays have a greater chance of occurring in the interim.
- P&P Reserves 2.9M Au and 75.5M Ag, M&I Reserves 3.9M Au and 94.6M Ag (Rather small)
- Projected Mine Life of 9 years for initial project (Not very long).
Perhaps additional mines will eventually be built in other areas of SKE's land packages, but it's quite risky in my view to bank on such an occurrence.
MOZ:
Greenfield land packages with the Feasibility Study for the initial Valentine Project indicating the following:
- P&P 2.7M ounces. M&I 4.7M ounces (like SKE, not huge numbers)
- LOM 14.3 years (not bad)
- AISC 1,007 USD per ounce (pretty decent)
- First pour scheduled for Q1 2025 (approximately 2 years from now).
- Fully permitted with initial mine build financing in place and early works underway.
My main issue with MOZ is management. Mistakes / delays have been made in the permitting / environmental assessment process and the need for additional equity financing at what may be considered low share prices. Thus, not sure if there are any more negative surprises in store between now and first pour. A new CEO with a successful track record would make me feel much better about this company. Also, when a decision to mine the project yourself is made and financing / contracting is done, I usually wish to see the project completed and gold being poured before I get my hopes up re. a potential takeout. If a company is taken out mid-project, I have doubts it will be at much of a premium.
ARTG:
Appears to have all their ducks in a row re. their Blackwater Project:
Seem to be further along in the mine building process than MOZ.
Feasibility Study the best of the three companies by far IMO:
- P&P 8M Au and 62.2M Ag.
- Measured, Indicated, Inferred ounces: chart provided on page 27 of slide presentation linked above.
- LOM 23 years
- AISC 850 CAD per ounce
- First pour date targeted for H2 2024 (less than 2 years away)
However:
- Too many cheap warrant outstanding: 31M outstanding (16% of current total shares outstanding) at a strike price of 1.08 (I consider any number above 10% to be excessive dilutive).
-
Gold Streaming Agreement too generous: (8% stream at 35% of US$ spot gold price reducing to 4% after 279,908 ounces delivered)
Other comments:
- Insiders have lots of skin in the game (own 40% of the company).
- Atlantic Gold is water under the bridge. The Blackwater project is what matters now.
Given the above, I think ARTG is the best bet.