Kelt is Positioned for the long run. Gas price are weak, however Kelt has the options.
Keyera Pipestone expansion coming on line this year, Kelt will optimize their production toward oil/liquids and i expect their liquids ratio will increase going forward.
Oak is simply drilling wells that will not be completed until the gas economics improve. These gas producers really should not be bringing on any production here.
BIR dividend is 13% totally unsustainable, peyto 11.37%
So I expect we will see more charlie lake wells in northern alberta, more focus on oil, and with the prices down, i expect they will slow drilling to align with FFO.
You hear about mergers happending on a more regular basis, and Kelt has plays that are company makers, and Wembley/Pipestone, with some Charlie lake mixed in their has to be one of the most desireable plays in the market.
By year end they will likely be producing over 40,000 boe/day, meaning improve CF even with these weak energy prices.
Kelt is trading really cheap and in 2024 they can focus on getting the wells drilled for the other 50 MMcf of plant coming on a Wembley that will land them close to 60,000 boe/day.
In a difficult market Kelt will benifit, and pick up a few block of lands here and there, and bring on economical oil weighted wells.
IMHO