Better to be lucky than goodNatural gas in the US is tight. 70 BCF injection for the week ending May 10. That's less than late June in 2021, 2022 and 2023. We could be looking at a significant reduction in US natural gas in storage during the next 3 months.
Kelt invested a lot in natural gas wells in 2024. 13 wells I think (reduced to 11). Strange because prices were at the time the decision was made (late October?) low and Kelt has almost no hedges. Nobody that I follow did that. The strategy is one of hoping for higher natural gas prices., And we all know hope is not a strategy. There may of course be other reasons for doing so unknown to this tyro.
But then its better to be lucky than good.
Suddenly it seems US natural gas supply is tight so we may see natgas prices - at least in the US - go up quite a bit this summer. If you look at consumption of natural gas for power generation, its around 33-34 Bs right now. It peaked last summer in the low 50's, spent most of the summer in the low 40's I believe..
The thing is, other power gen sources - hydro, nuclear, wind, solar - aren't flexible. They always produce the maximum they can. Only natural gas (and coal) can ramp up for the increased demand in the summer. So I opine (amateur) that we will be average mid 40 B's this year for the summer. Or +10 compared to this latest report. IOW, I'm going out on a limb to say its possible though unlikely there will be no injection at all this summer (June to August). What was injection last year during the same time? over 600 Bs.
Like I said, better to be lucky than good.