Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Kelt will be revalued

[MyHoneyPot]

In Q3 when Kelt reported 28,000 boe/day, it had to deal with effectively 2,700 boe of plant downtime. 

Now in Q4 all the plants are fixed, and they have added a incremental capacity to add 8,500 to 9,000.

So really Kelt really should get rewarded for incremental production increase, that is taking place as we speak. All the wells were already drilled to fill the new gas plant capacity. 

I expect to see a lot of incremental charlie lake activity, which is prolific oil, and some associated gas. 

This is a real positive for CF and now all we need is some firming prices, but i think 40,000 boe/day is a material step for Kelt. 

2024 it is off to the races, with debt free Kelt.

IMHO

[PabloLafortune]

What are your thoughts on the 2023 reserves report (usually comes out mid February of the following year so in 2 months' time) ?  Pretty sure Charlie Lake will show a lot of (oil) growth as they had very few locations booked last year.

[MyHoneyPot]

I think Charlie Lake will show a lot of growth and it looks like their putting together a great land position there, a bit more land. I like what they are doing in Pouce Charlie Lake.    Charlie lake really would of been the majority of the liquids growth for 2023. (9 wells) Plus all the verticals recompletions.  Wembley they drilled 9 wells to fill the plant with 2023 Capex and

[PabloLafortune]

Btw, ARC Resources is saying 40,000 boepd @ Attachie with 90MMcf/day of gas processing and $500M of netback ($34.25 per boe) in 2025.  Kelt will have 108MMcf/day gas processing @ Wembley by Q4 2024... Both 60% liquids... It is crazy though how much plant capacity ARX has at Kakwa vs planned Attachie for plays that are so similar: Attachie plant: 90MMcf/day, production: 40,000 boepd Kakwa:

[MyHoneyPot]

The infastructure buildout at Kakwa, was way overdone, that being said Kakwa has historically produced over 220,000 boe/day.   Kakwa has tons of idle capacity, and i think they are going to drill less than 50 wells in 2024 to maintain 180,000 boe of production.  Lots of running room there, but ARC management basiclly have done zero for the assets they purchased from VII Gen and

[PabloLafortune]

CNQ drill to fill vs ARX build to _______? They can't both be right?