Post by
PabloLafortune on Mar 25, 2024 11:07am
CSV Albright Midstream plant: impact on Kelt
This is the new plant that is scheduled to startup (flaring test) in September 2024. Kelt has booked 50 MMcf of its capacity which depending on oil %, translates to 12,000 to 14,000 boepd of production for Kelt (don't take my word for it) of which 40%+ is going to be oil.
Besides natural gas and liquids, this plant will produce up to 70 Tons of sulfur per day. Even TVE and Nuvista talk about it. Kelt is obviously an anchor tenant with a third of its 150MMcf capacity. What plans there are for expansion are premature and unknown at this point.
If you look at Kelt's 2024 projections, theyre saying the range is 36,000 to 39,000. Since Kelt Q2 and Q3 are projected at 35,000 to 37,000 boepd, its safe to say that post Albright being fully operational, Kelt will be a 49,000 boepd producer.
More importantly, I Pablo guesstimate Kelt to be 31% oil and condensate in Q2 and Q3. Which means post Albright, Kelt should be 35-36% oil.
Then if you take C$108 oil revenue (US$83-3 x 1.355), 35-36% oil, 8% NGL and natgas at 2.93 (Kelt Q4 '23 x HH Q4 '24 strip/HH Q4'23 actual), plus other #s listed in Kelt presentation, you get $530MM of annualized cashflow.
$500MM annual cashflow E&P: That's what Kelt is destined to be once that plant is operational.