Kelt Exploration Ltd T.KEL

Risk of ownership

[MustangMatt]

The only oil and gas stock on my board out of 10 that is in the Red!  That is your risk of ownership.  Kelt this dog does not hunt, cheers Matthew

[Bronson101]

Why the constant sh*t posting? If this isn't your kind of investment why are you so interested? Burning energy to be negative, seems wasteful... don't you realise a significant amount of people on this board invested back in 2020, a lot of us are very much in the black. 

[TouchDown12]

Mustage, let's face it; you are both FOMO and critic. Nothing wrong with either; just choose. LOL. BTW - I always have enjoyed your posts - but I don't remember them being this full of contempt. GLTA Long KELT. TD12

[PabloLafortune]

I have to side some with MM.  WTI was $79 on March 4 and Kelt reached $6.21. Its now $6.06 while WTI is $83. CNQ reached $97.80 on March 4, its now $103.33. On that basis, Kelt should be $6.52. According to Kelt, a 10% increase in Oil and NGLs (which unlike oil don't actually move with WTI at all short term but in any event doesn't matter much) price will result in $30MM additional

[MustangMatt]

I can't stand those who can not think critically or honestly.  The world is not Black and White, every investment, every company has good attributes and bad.  As an investor our job is to think critically.  Take debt for instance, debt is leverage, leverage can be a good thing, one definition is, "use (something) to maximum advantage." Debt is also a company killer

[MyHoneyPot]

Good job, that was a very positive post for Kelt.  No Debt No Share Buyback All Capital going to drill bit + Buying Land 79% increase in production forecast between Q3 2022 - Q1 - 2025 NAV 22.75 a share 2023 year end Not Leveraged Positive is they don't have Eric Nuttal clouding the value picture and trading against you Its a real investment not a stock

[PabloLafortune]

I ran the #s for CNQ, stock is up pretty much what the additional cashflow from WTI dictates. In Kelt's case, it should be $6.95 following the same method. Instead its $6.16. I'll run some other #s when I get a chance but this dog does not hunt seems to aptly describe this stock at the moment. The irony is the investors clamoring for buybacks / 100% cashflow to shareholders are obviously

[MyHoneyPot]

I don't like buybacks because they evaporate capital off the balance sheet, and don't protect the company if the economic enviroment goes south. I would rather they accelerate drilling, and that is where they get their best returns and create value. Buyback have so little impact unless they bought back like 10 million shares. Accelerate investment move the company faster towards it

[PabloLafortune]

The way I see it, the market is volatile so it creates opportunities that companies should take advantage of. In Kelt's case, buying back shares when they're so low makes sense.  As does hedging oil and natural gas when prices are very high. Problem with spending all the cashflow on capex is you run the risk of malinvestment. And as I've illustrated, at these oil prices, they'

[MustangMatt]

That is exactly my point Mr. Lafortune.  You can run the numbers for Tamarack and come up with about the same as CNQ.   What is Kelt?  Look at this statement  "As the Company transitions from exploration and resource delineation to development and multi-well pad drilling".  Kelt used to market themselves as a exploration and delineation company.  They would

[PabloLafortune]

Mea Culpa. The dilution is not too bad actually but the lack of laser focus on oil plays the last 2 years has been a major faux pas. As was not buying back some shares when cheap. When natgas recovers, I hope they unload Oak and Pouce Coupe West and either reward shareholders or focus on oil. Btw, most of the small nat gas players - CR, BIR, AAV - are also going nowhere fast. In any event you are

[MustangMatt]

I don't think the market liked the cap ex reduction and managements price deck reductions.  In my opinion, they pulled the plug to early, they should have waited out the qtr. before lowering the estimates for WTI from $80 to $75.  that being said if oil holds $85 or more in Q2, the market likely re rates them higher or when management ups guidance. In my opinion the company should

[PabloLafortune]

Basically they had a huge drill/completion budget over at Oak and yet had no natural gas hedges. The whole strategy was based on hope....unless there is a plan to sell it or they've figured out how to get more condensate out of the play, in hindsight it wasn't well thought out. The major problem for the stock that I see right now though is no float. Nobody wants to be stuck with a stock