MEG Energy Corp T.MEG

No Surprises Monday

[Fuzman5902]

Should see earnings in the 86 range & lost opportunities somewhere around 68

Oct started like gangbusters but with the blowout in differentials for Novenber @ least, my expectations have been lowered considerably.

Although I was hoping for a $10 increase from Q3, way to optomistic it would seem.

Differential hedges in the $15 range sure look good.right about now :)

Refinery turn arounds, high price of Nat Gas, + whatever else you can come up with.

Speaking of surpises I gather most people have seem market call by now.

Last time he was on a caller brought up meg & potential takeover & was shut down competely this time round he brings up ATH & tax pools & projects out to 2023. ?????
I smell something fishy.

Maybe there all smarter than I think, keep your job for a couple years, debt free get taken out for 1.8 B  ( fully dilluted) warrant holders triple their money. minus the 500 million, 37K per flowing barrel, expensive right now but maybe not in a couple years.

But what do I know?????

Regards Fuz

[perstrudent]

I hope none of these get taken out for 4 more years where we can gain our financial leverage and fair value. But factor in tax pools of 0.20 on the doller some of these names, MEG, ATH, ...look at OBE!...just too cheap... The big boys who are having to pay taxes have to be eyeing some of these names up..

[Fuzman5902]

While from an acquiree perspective the less debt the better the terms & of couse the exact opposite for the acquirer. While theres no doubt meg is in play the big 3 excluding imo all have their own financial issues to address 1st. I could be totally wong but I don't see a serious offer until 2023. The big question is what do they do in the meantime? Regards Fuz

[CashHungry]

If I was cynic I woud suspect Eric of doing a pump and dump with ATH as he's been looking for an exit point from that stock for a while. The differential sucks, but should work itself out before too long.  Refinery turn around is probably the major factor, natural gas is a factor as well, but the refineries are geared towards heavy oil and will either need to shut down or pay the higher

[Fuzman5902]

The 1.8 Billion was still a reference to Ath 600 milliom x 3 = 1.8 Who knows they may be looking for more. Regards Fuz

[Fuzman5902]

Well I am a cynic pulled the same garbage with wcp last month. Loaded up was a top pick with a $ 10 price target, believe it or not some people have it as high as $ 12. & of couse he has now lightened up. Look @ WCP's latest release about 2022 earings 770 Million in fcf. 770/631 =  1.22 a share  Cash flow multiple of 8.2. Where on earth have you ever seen his targets (for now

[CandyC]

It's called rebalancing. I'm sure it will still reach $12 in 2022. I expect that rebalancing will be overweight in smaller caps such as Athabasca and Gear. He always states that is where the multi baggers are  

[Re1ndeer2]

I like Eric's research but his picks are definitely self serving and without long term conviction....Flavour of the week...Will flip CNQ just as quick as he dumped Suncor...I see MEG over $14 Q1 2022......

[CashHungry]

Bang on! Eric is a trader not an investor.  I am amazed at how his top 10 holdings jump around from month-to-month.  He actively moves around a lot of stock in remarkably short period of time.  He is smart though, and very worth listening to, just be wise with his recommendations and read between the lines. Ban

[Eigen337]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[CashHungry]

[CashHungry]

I always watch Eric religiously, but take his top picks with a large grain of salt.  The fact is, his top picks really may not be his top picks.  For example, I can believe that CVE and ARX are pretty near the top and I would be surprised to see him ighten his position anytime soon.  However, there is no way he favors ATH over TVE.a I also hold WCP but had no expectations of big