NORTHERN BLIZZARD RESOURCES INC T.NBZ

NBZ and M&A

[Method]

It seems from their public statements that NBZ is looking to do more M&A.

Anyone think they could take a run at TBE?

They could issue about 30% of their EV (debt or stock) and increase their production by 60% (more if they are willing to spend capital on the medium oil assets that TBE has).

The valuation differential is signficant on a EV/BOE/D and EV/DACF basis and seems exploitable in the current environment.

[ppp]

I would like nothing better than if these guys took a run at TBE. It would be where I would invest my proceeds anyhow. 

[Method]

What if they did it for all debt and cancelled the dividend for a few years while they paid down debt (although, I guess most of their dividend is in stock so maybe not that relevant)?

[ppp]

    IMO If they could get TBE cheap enough they could just carry the current debt of 204 mil , I would think the banks would agree to that. As a debenture holder I would give my debentures up at 50 cents on the dollar to this company as I can see making money long term here.  So lets say they issue 10 mil shares for the debenture debt and lets say 12.5 mil shares for the TBE common

[ppp]

So lets look at the metrics EV value at the moment 884  mil, Ev value merged 1.183 bil Production   per flowing   44,200  at 20,000 bbls pre merge,  post merge  at 34000 bbls 34,794 per flowing. I wouldn't change EV to 2P reserves much.  One of the reasons I think most of the TBE investors are dreaming if they think they are going to get much over 15 cents

[Method]

So you can see the gigantic upside to NBZ equity if they get to keep the $44k/boe/d multiple!