Nevada Copper Corp T.NCU

NCU new shareholder Notgnu > avg $0.115

[Notgnu]

My average keeps creeping up (after sarting at about $.08) as it seems major pullbacks are unlikely now, even despite the tax-loss sell possibility > avg. $0.115

 

My reasons to own NCU shares:
 

• Trading at 0.4 X book value... crazy IMO
• Fallout from Covid shut down depressed the price dramatically
• Safe & friendly jurisdiction

• Copper demand guy is soon POTUS
• Big leverage to copper price gain

• New mill passed to run at design of 5000 tpd 
• Full copper production next 8 to 16 week
• Hoisting and ventilation shafts almost completed 
• Hedged only about 25% over next 12 months
• Vaccine news removes much Covid uncertainty
• Copper is 50% higher marginal profit than at last financing (all in cost $1.86)

• Tax loss selling is still an unknown speculation
• Consolidation may happen (I am in favour:  margin can be had and institutions can buy (I prefer 40:1)
• Flippers periodically dump into the bid... yes, volitility to be expected
• Shorts probably covered… not sure
• Debt financing basically done to access high grade stopes
• Banks willing to lend at reasonable rates (interbank rate + 4.9%)
• Highly experienced CEO on board and he was granted 3,500,000 share rights, which align him with shareholders  
• Capital will come with excercise of $.20 warrants to fund future expansion.

A general note on NCU share appreciation math:
Commodity price increases benfit higher, cost minimally hedged companies more

• Company A produces copper at $0.00 per pound (maybe due to gold credits)
• Company B produces copper at $2.00 per pound

A copper move up from $2.90 to $3.50:

• Profit at Company A goes up about 15% or so 
• Profit at company  B goes up about 75% or so (not exact but you get it)

 

Company B trades at 0.5X NAV due to dilution fear
Company A trades at 2.0X NAV due to low debt risk

Company B benefits more than company A from new outlook and copper price

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 

With copper having gone from $3.00 vs $3.50

With copper having gone from $3.00 to $3.50 the open pit cash-flow projection has doubled since the last financing (at $0.14 with copper under $3.00)

Have a look at slide# 14, The open pit economics go crazy above $3.50 copper

$204,000,000 cashflow... for 19 years

Current market cap of NCU = about $200 million 

https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4190/ncu_october_2020_final.pdf

https://nevadacopper.com/projects/pumpkin-hollow-overview/
 

Cheers,
Notgnu 
Freelance Investor Information for NCU.

 

[SaraTimbs]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[nofluff]

Eye apear to have averaged up as well not. .105 is what my houses now say. Ncu us becoming a bit boring now. Just mine and sell copper and gold at a high price. Tko on the other hand is full of intrigue:)) nf

[Notgnu]

Nice one nf.. I guess I amm drinking my own Coolade... (which can be dangerous) but as a speculator I simply follow my convictions until and unless some new or outside factor becomes known to me. So chances are I will continnue to average up though I am soon at my self imposed limit..

[SNgu8000]

Thank you Notgru for your lots of work , thank Nofluff ( i knew NCU from your post at TKO , i had missed TKO bc pennies pinching ) , thank Bog , Rock . I had NCU too ( a lot - Trump sound ) . I m retired , entertained all your guys posts and love gamble . Sr , I didn't contribute at all : my typing and English . But let you all know I appreciated you all