WHO CARES ? WE ARE TRADING AT ONLY 1% OF NPV !!!THE PFS HAD AN NPV OF US$ 2 BILLION WHICH @ 1.28 IS CAD$ 2.55 BILLION. BUT THE FOB PRICE FOR MOP IS 20% HIGHER SO THE NPV IS 2.5x1.2 = CAD$ 3.06 BILLION.
HOWEVER, THE 10% DROP IN THE REAL THIS YEAR SHOULD GO STARIGHT TO THE BOTTOM LINE SO THE NPV SHOULD BE INCREASED BY 10% (3.06x1.1) = C$ 3.37 BILLION. WITH 41 MILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING WE GET AN NPV OF C$ 82 / SHARE.
THERFORE AT YESTERDAY'S CLOSE OF $0.84, WE ARE ESSENTIALY AT 1% OF NPV.
SO WHAT'S THE RISK ?
IF VERDE IS 99% WRONG , WE'LL GET OUR MONEY BACK.
IF VERDE IS 98% WRONG, WE'LL DOUBLE OUR MONEY.
IF VERDE IS 97% WRONG, WE'LL TRIPLE OUR MONEY.
IF VERDE IS 96% WRONG, WE'LL QUADRUPLE OUR MONEY.
IF VERDE IS 95% WRONG, WE'LL QUINTUPLE OUR MONEY.
AND SO ON AND SO FORTH; YOU GET THE POINT.
PERSONALLY I DON'T CARE ABOUT PHASE 2 AND PHASE 3.
ALL I CARE ABOUT FOR NOW IS PHASE 1.
WITH THE PRESENT PRICES AND COSTS VERDE SHOULD MAKE CAD$ 42 / TON.
THAT IS A NET PROFIT OF ABOUT CAD$ 25 MILLION PER YEAR, EVERY YEAR.
AND I AM NOT EVEN CONSIDERING ANY INTERNATIONAL SALES OR OTHER PRODUCTS.
WITH AROUND 41 MILLION SHARES OUTSTANDING , IT IS $0.60 PER SHARE.
SINCE FEBRUARY 2017 WE HAVE BEEN TRADING, WITH A LOT OF VOLATILITY, AT AN AVERAGE PRICE OF AROUND $ 0.75 PER SHARE. I'LL TAKE THAT AS OUR BASE.
SO @ $0.60/SHARE WE'LL ROUGHLY GET OUR MONEY BACK EVERY YEAR... FOREVER !
PHASE 1 IS 600,000 TONS WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO AROUND 100,000 TONS OF MOP.
THIS IS MORE OR LESS ONLY ABOUT 1.5% OF THE BRAZILIAN POTASH MARKET.
I REPEAT, ONLY 1.5% OF THE BRAZILIAN MARKET.
WITH ALL THE ADVANTAGES VERDE HAS, HOW DIFFICULT IS THAT ?