RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:oops i accidentally saved my previous post prematurelyKramer all these events are way more on the downside for oil in medium and long term after russia invasion....
Russia has to pump ever barrel of oil they can for now and the forseebale future to get desperately needed foreign curreny. Ruble has crashed so bad that interest rates have been raised to 20% in Russia.
The pieces to the puzzle are starting to fit....
Russia built up this 630 billion reserve through jacking up NG prices since November and oil prices since Januay. Part of this oil increase in price was to fund this war. By keeping world oil inventory numbers lower...Russia becomes unsanctionable on oil sales.
But after war when dust settles...downside could really appear for oil.
Something odd was released last week...when Biden released more oil in Feb from SPR he had asked China. Well the results show China actually bought more oil to thier reserve in Feb for basically no reason as China has 950 millon barrels of oil storage...in the face of high oil prices....
Well some are speculatng China knew about Russia plans but maybe thought just into those two republics instead of an invasion....
But why would China being the largest oil importer want to go against lowering oil prices???
I think one reason could become clear in next few weeks....
One good reason is China wants to see OPEC+ end...and a real chance exists that Russia will be kicked out.
Why?
Well because Russia serves no use to OPEC anymore...as Russia will never be able to hold back oil production...Russia will be so broke for so many years they have to max produce oil..they need every dollar...
And China wins from this...short term pain for long term gain. China gains most from a weaker opec withput Russia in it.
Other countries can go electric but China petrochmeical insutry will always need lots of oil. Best interests for OPEC to be weaer.
Kramerkarma wrote:
common' I'm just pulling your leg!... wti wow! Russian sanctions and 450k bpd offline an opec nation.