Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

oops i accidentally saved my previous post prematurely

[Mickey2]

without asking, was it Hendrik or Johnjbond who said $20 ?

[kavern23]

Mickey the irony in this is OBE is likely 12-13 dollars right now without this bullsh*t of war..... If European and USA stock markets keep crashing by 300-600 points a day...OBE isnt going to ht 20 bucks this year.  This war needs to stop within the nxt 5 days. This isnt the 1940's under hitler times...world economies are so connected in 2022..... Russia provides 13% of worlds

[Hendrick3]

I have said for year end that $20 is a reasonable target. It may be higher if oil stays in this range. 

[claymore55]

What if high tech stocks crash and fall out of favor?  Would energy stocks start to achieve insane valuations (assuming oil hits $150/barrel)?   Just some off the wall thinking.

[kavern23]

Depends on what Joe Biden is thinking.... Only one country has defeated Putin econmically and made him cry for mercy and that was Saudia Arabia. We have saw this back in March 2020.  Saudia wanted to cut production quotas because they saw less demand from Covid and Russia said no.  Putin gave the middle finger said nah we like to produce how we want.  Putin thought Saudia wouldnt

[kavern23]

Need three variables all at once for this to happen which still makes it unlikely at this... Biden would need to coordinate with all G7 countries to release oil at same time...have iran deal signed and they have 100 million barrels ready to hit market....and convince Saudia to help with thier 2 m tbarrels a day they have shown they can turn on fast.  With USa shale companies having low DUC

[JohnJBond]

Did you notice the sanctions today make exceptions for energy payments..........lol Russia and US can push and pull each other, but Russia needs to sell its oil and gas and the US needs that oil and gas in the market. What we are seeing however is a portend of what is to come - not from this Ukraine situation, but from the point of view of conflict over resources. Imagine if Russia responded by

[pennydredful]

Biden's move  to  block  the Keystone  pipeline   looks  even more brilliant now.

[kavern23]

Agreed...more energy independent USA is the more leverage they have on the political scene. But USA is still in the best shape when it comes to needing Russia's energy. WTI is 5.30 below Brent pricing...shows the market's feelings. Europe,China, and India need Russia oil the most. But Russia needs revenue right now...they actually increased natural gas exports to Europe yesterday..it

[pennydredful]

US   importing   100,000  barrels   today   per day  from   Russia.  

[Kramerkarma]

probably because USA can't add another 100k bbl eh Kav ;) hehe

[Kramerkarma]

common' I'm just pulling your leg!... wti wow! Russian sanctions and 450k bpd offline an opec nation.

[kavern23]

Kramer all these events are way more on the downside for oil in medium and long term after russia invasion.... Russia has to pump ever barrel of oil they can for now and the forseebale future to get desperately needed foreign curreny.  Ruble has crashed so bad that interest rates have been raised to 20% in Russia. The pieces to the puzzle are starting to fit.... Russia built up this 630

[kavern23]

Iraq probably took that production offline as a favor to Russia.  Russia has cut so many arm deals with those middle east countries....lots of those countries use t-72 tanks...russian tank is everywhere. OPEC producing under quota was so "odd' and nothing to say this wasnt lead or encouraged by Russia since Nov. They statrted putting troops at border in Nov. Almost every oil and

[kavern23]

Look at one of the first production outages that lead to higher oil prices in January..... It was Kazahstan...a former soveit union country. That got the ball rolling rolling for oil and Putin to start building the war chest.

[JohnJBond]

Depends on the time frame. At this point, each quarter provides the step on which to predict the next quarter.   I have a penciled in estimate of funds flow for Q1.    It will be adjusted based on the results disclosed today.    This number gets firmer as the number of days remaining in the quarter declines, and the oil price for each day is historic